MurphGuide Sports

Summer in Calcutta
by Peter Murphy
November 16, 2006

The title is the politically correct way to describe this time of year, since you can’t say Indian Summer anymore, I think. It’s the time of year to look back at the baseball season just ended, and to gear up for the stretch run of college and pro football. That the NBA and NHL season’s just started is of no consequence. And of course, do not even mention college basketball until after the Super Bowl.

Baseball

Postseason
Since there were several lousy teams, and not a ton of drama (3 series sweeps, and 3 series where the winner dropped but one game), The Mets-Cards game 7 got lost in the shuffle, with the Endy Chavez’ play for the ages wiped out by the team’s failure. Of the 8 playoff teams, I would suspect maybe 3 will return to post-season next year, but that’s still a long way off.
This post-season had teams that showed they can hit and pitch, but not necessarily know how to play baseball:
Yankees, Twins, and Tigers, all were done in by a lack of fundamentals. And while they downplay it in baseball as compared to football, the 2006 Cardinals were the rare case when a championship can be attributed mainly to the manager, (as would also have happened with the Tigers, if they had won). I guess 4-time manager of the year LaRussa finally got the monkey off his back after being 1 for 9 in previous years when reaching the final 4. He’s no Bobby Cox.

Hot Stove Issues
But on to next year. The Mets and Yanks seem to have the money, desire and will to compete for free agents, and compete they will, for the limited number of solid starting pitchers. The Mets could use some outfield help at the corners, and need David Wright to get back on track. Barring some major move by a division opponent (say, Soriano to the Phillies), the Mets should win the East, 2nd at worst. Yankees are probably good to go as is, now that Mussina is back in the fold, but they will still try to shore up the team. Because of depth in hitting, Abreu will easily replace Sheffield next year, and offense won’t be the problem. Barry Zito and a few others will benefit from the 2006 post-season’s emphasis on quality pitching, making it a seller’s market.

But the big story, $51 million for the pain/pleasure of talking to Scott Boras. I’ll cut to the chase.
I expect they will not sign Daisuke Matsuzaka. There are several reasons for this:

They will come to their senses.
- There will be no win-win contract between the player (and his evil agent) and the team.
Only the Seibu Lions owner makes out for sure if the deal is done. Either the player gets below market value as the Red Sox get a deal for a combined salary and negotiation fee they can live with, or the Red Sox shell out way to much total average annual cost.
- Maybe they don’t intend to sign him, but just keep him away from the Yanks
- Even though I disagreed with the Rangers’ excuse for dumping A-Rod three years ago,
(that he absorbed too much salary for them to be competitive), it is true the future moves the Red Sox wouldn’t be able to make are just too great.
- It’s not a case of Matsuzaka now or nothing. If they can’t do a deal, they may end up with Barry Zito, Mark Mulder,Roger Clemens, or Andy Pettite, and probably others in future years.
- If they do sign him, anything less than 18 wins and anything above 3.20 ERA will be a bust, and that’s too much pressure to put on a guy.
- It will dawn on the Sox that this guy is unproven as a major leaguer. He is not Lebron James, a lock.
He is not Eli Manning, worth 2 # draft picks. He is not ARod of the year 2000, who has won 2 MVP’s since then, but was headed to the HOF before then. Matsuzaka hasn’t done it here yet, so there is some speculation. Sure his ball moves, but how many of his outs were deep flies that might be HRs with MLB sluggers?
- Mathematically, consider this matrix of potential contract lengths, and annual salaries for the player.
The figure at the right is the total average cost, including level spread out of the $51 million rights fee.

$ are shown in Millions.

Years	To Player	$ox Cost (annual average)
3	$5	$22
5	$5	$15
7	$5	$12
10	$5	$10

3	$8	$25
5	$8	$18
7	$8	$15
10	$8	$13

3	$11	$28
5	$11	$21
7	$11	$18
10	$11	$16

3	$14	$31
5	$14	$24
7	$14	$21
10	$14	$19

The only figures that should seem reasonable to the Red Sox are those below $18 million per year,
which rules out any thing less than 5 years. But the player will not accept any length deal for only $5 million,
knowing the team will pay double or triple that, since he only need wait one year to become a complete free agent.
The same applies if the player would earn only $8 million, leaving 60% to 125% of upside on the table.
So realistically, the deal can only be done for a salary above $10 million, and for at least 7 years.
At that point, the lesson of Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton comes into play. While hitters can deteriorate over a long contract, they are still usually productive to some extent, or you can hide them in the lineup.
But a starting pitcher, after several years, could be useless (arm/shoulder injury), or if ineffective enough that you would rather not give them the ball at all.

College Football
(My comments here come before the weekend Michigan-Ohio State game.)
I think the BCS system gets a little more crazy every year. Because Ohio State seems so formidable, and so many other elite teams had a loss early on, the focus on who would move up in the polls, combined with 2 undefeated (unchallenged) Big East teams late in the year has added to the volume of debate. I have always said a playoff is the way to go, but now I’d settle for the “Bowls Plus 1” concept. As it stands, in most years, the second team in the BCS race is not discernible from the third or fourth.
How come West Virginia was poised, and then Louisville, to rise to the top spot if undefeated, but Rutgers (say they defeat both) will have no shot, even though all three have played essentially the same schedule. And how come all 3 Big East contenders are in the top 10 of the BCS, when their schedule has been derided so greatly? They’re all like 3-0 vs UCONN, Syracuse, and So. Fla. So what? The computers are obviously a joke having Rutgers second and Ohio State third.
The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will play for the title, against either of USC, Notre Dame, Florida or Arkansas, or maybe even a rematch. There are probably no other possibilities. So the system needs obvious reforms.
From now until the inevitable playoff system is established (Does anyone doubt that by 2020 there will be a playoff, and we will regret the wasted years of intransigence on the part of the “College Presidents”) they should establish a rule barring a non-conference champion (not including independents) from the BCS championship game. In 2001, Nebraska played for the title, and didn’t even APPEAR in the Big-12 championship game. In 2003, Oklahoma was destroyed in the Big 12 final, yet still got to the big game. (Both teams played like crap in losing the BCS championship game.)
I say this only because there is some talk of a Big-10 rematch. Some have said that if either team loses late, or close, or whatever, they should get a second chance. Well, Ohio State has been the top dog all year. The rest of the country has two more cracks at them this season. If there were only two Flu Shots left in the entire country, would you give them both to the same guy? To Dick Cheney? Of course not. Sorry Michigan, Ohio State does not have to beat you twice to win it all. This upcoming game is your playoff game. (Does anyone doubt that if Michigan won the Big Chill game, and could only be champion by beating OSU twice that MU fans would be bitching up a storm.
And then there’s all the beat-the-team-that-beat-the-team nonsense. Suppose Florida beats Arkansas in the SEC final, but not as badly as USC did opening night. Is that a factor? If Notre Dame wins out and is sitting pretty with one loss, does a one-loss Michigan team have a beef? In the Kevin Bacon game of College Football, everyone with a loss has beaten a team that beat a team . .. . yada yada, that beat the team that is your sole vanquisher.
But alas, the system could be worse, and was 40 years ago. In 1966, the two-time defending champion (neither time undefeated), Alabama Crimson Tide BEGAN the year as the pre-season number one ranked team, won all their games (the only unbeaten-untied team) in the tough SEC, and destroyed Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl, yet ended up as the third ranked team. Back then, Notre Dame did not yet play in Bowl games (there were only 8 bowls), and Michigan State, who tied Notre Dame and finished second, was prohibited by Big 10 rules of playing in a bowl in consecutive years.

Prediction: USC and OSU are too tough in their respective rivalry games, and meet for the national title.

NFL
It looks like there are again more solid teams in the AFC, but enough strength in the NFC to make the post-season a toss up in that regard. Most of the divisions are sown up (Seattle, Colts, Bears, Ravens), but recent losses (Pats and Giants) have brought those in the East back to life. Wild Cards will be hard to come by, with the Chargers or Broncos having a leg up for one in the AFC, but a complicated NFC, with several quality teams having squandered games in the first nine that they will regret. Cowboys, Jets, and Falcons come to mind, as do the Panthers.

Other notes
- Peyton Manning is answering at least some criticism, by winning without Edgerin, and winning most games close. That’s called clutch, and talented. But, until he makes the Super Bowl, he’ll have to settle for the Hall of Fame, and tons of dough in endorsements and salary. If you still don’t like this guy, then ask yourself how many teams would trade their QB for him, straight up? When you get to 3, stop, and start over, you’ve gone too far.
- The Jets are playing everyone tough, and are one of 3 teams with a winning record (5-4) who have been outscored. Credit the coach. But, even though their remaining schedule is not tough, they will rue the loss to the hapless Browns.
- Denny Green will never work again, after this year.
- Tiki Barber: Let him go. Why does he have to get pounded into a wheel chair? Who are we to say he should go until he’s HOF, or has a ring. Does he tell you what to do? (Okay, he gets millions to suggest to you that you buy products he pitches, but he really isn’t emotional about whether you do it or not). I bet Curtis Martin wished he hung it up after the 2004 season.

Potpourri
I couldn’t let the passing of Red Auerbach go without comment. Despite 20 years in the woods, the Celts are still the all-time team of the NBA, and that’s due to Red. Despite many virtues, I was most impressed with his string of unorthodox acquisitions that set the stage for their dominance. He started by getting Bill Sharman, who everyone else assumed would play baseball. A gutsy trade giving him a shot at Bill Russell, who dominated for over a decade. By drafting an ABA player, who later signed with another team, he was able to finagle the draft pick that brought Paul Silas aboard. Great trades brought in Cowens, and enabled the Celts to nab Parrish and McHale in the same draft. And of course, tapping into Larry Bird a year before he left college lead to dominance in the 1980s.
By the mid-80s, his Midas Touch was legendary. So much so that during the most exciting sports-related non-sporting event ever (the NBA Lottery), Red almost gave me a heart attack. Watching with several Celts fans, the 7 lottery General Managers paraded around, each grabbing one large envelope from the bowl. When it was Red’s turn, he picked up an envelope, and then dropped it. Assuming the fix was in, we were not surprised when the Celts ended up with the second pick in the draft, despite having just won the NBA title for the 3rd time in 6 years.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, Part 2
by Peter Murphy
October 3, 2006
There are several most wonderful times of the year. The first comes in March, as the NCAA tournament comes around, just as the crack of the baseball bat emerges from hibernation. The second is now, as baseball’s post-season kicks off, just as college and pro football season’s are being made or lost.

Football
Shaping up to be a good NFL season, but college football lacks drama, given that so few of the remaining unbeaten teams will square off in-season in must-see games. Ohio State has one game of danger, the suddenly revitalized Michigan Wolverines. Will any SEC team survive unbeaten, which is becoming crucial to get the BCS championship bid? Is Rutgers for real? And when did the Heisman trophy become the “who-among-players-on-top-teams-had-gaudy-stats-in-key-games-and,-if-a-quarterback,-played-on-an-undefeated-team” Award?

Well it’s the midway mark of the year, and of the baseball season, and it’s been an interesting first half.

MLB:
It looks like Jim Leyland is shaping up to be what Tony LaRussa wishes he was. LaRussa usually has a good squad, and ends up in the playoffs, but there’s lingering doubt about his so-called genius. Leyland has got the Tigers playing way above their expected level, in just half a season, when most people had forgotten who Jim Leyland was. The Tigers are complicating the playoff positioning, especially with defending champs the Chisox still playing at last year’s level. In the preseason, I refused to pick the White Sox to repeat, because you just can’t say “repeat” in the same sentence as any Chicago baseball team. But usually, the AL east expects 2 teams, having had the wild card team in 8 of the 11 wild cards in AL history. There’s still a lot of baseball yet to go, so it’s no given which of the Soxes, Tigers, or Yankees will miss the playoffs.

And don’t yet cry for the Yankees with all those injuries, or start saying that the managing has been extra special, or that any one player is keeping it all together, heroically. Sure they’ve lost a lot of key starters, but they have so many key guys to begin with. Since they overpay for everyone, it’s not fair to just deduct the salaries of the missing and point out that they are still around $140-150 million, and still the highest payroll. But if you analyze rosters throughout the league, there should be no surprise that the Yankees are in the hunt. Bottom line, ask yourself, what would you expect from a team that had A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Mussina, Johnson and Rivera? How many teams don’t have that many guys that good, covering batters, starters and closers? Most teams don’t stack up. If the Yankees can stay in the hunt until Matsui and Sheffield return, they should make a strong run for the playoffs. It would be great to see the Twins make a run into this group. They are the hottest team, but have a lot of ground to make up. This would be the 4th time in five post-contraction years that the Twins make the playoffs.

In the National League, let me remind you of my pre-season prediction for the NL east:
“Mets (decent enough team, easy competition now that Leo Mazzone is gone, and the Phillies, Marlins, and Expos imploded.”

But I had no idea how easy it would be. The Mets offense has exceeded expectations, the two Hall of Fame starters have been steady, and they’ve shown some spunk. But the rest of the division hasn’t been up to the competition. And there isn’t much more to say about the National League, other than the amazement over how fast the Diamondbacks have sunk like a stone after the whole Jason Grimsley affair. Grimsley evidently named names to the feds about teammates who cheated, and only two names have leaked out. David Segui has confessed already, but the other one, Jose Canseco is denying everything, and called Grimsley a Rat.

MVP’s
Big Papi, and Albert Pujols. Honorable mention to Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright in the N.L. (Beltran has higher on-base and slugging average of the three, and more runs, despite missing 9 games due to injury.)

Cy Young:
A tie. Glavine (what, you can’t give it to a 40 year old not named Roger or Unit?) and Bronson Arroyo, with Arroyo’s bat winning the tie-breaker. In the A.L., another tie, Toronto’s B.J. Ryan and Bosox rookie Jonathan Papelbon. Why 2 relievers? If you give up 2 runs in half a season as a closer, you pretty much can’t top that.

Rookie of the Year:
As a consolation, AL ROY is Francisco Liriano, over Papelbon.

Manager of the Year:
Leyland, and Willie Randolph, (except for that one inning against the Yankees).

NBA
The NBA playoffs for 2 rounds were exciting as it gets: Long series, every game close. The next 2 rounds were disappointing, but the finals at least had 3 tight games. Unfortunately, bad play and bad officiating seemed to be more determinative of the outcome than usual.

The playoffs answered the key question that was gnawing at me: Are the writers insane to give Steve Nash back-to-back MVP awards? The answer is yes, since Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James proved they are the far better players, and can actually carry a team through the playoffs. Steve Nash, okay, we get the joke. He is a good point guard, short and slow. In 2005 maybe he was more deserving, but in 2006, you had many qualified candidates. The Phoenix Suns lost 8 more games this year than they did last year, but writers voting for this invented the theory that to do so while playing without Amare Stoudemaire, somehow was a miracle. They make it sound like they were playing with 4 players, or that Stoudemaire was the 2^nd coming of Michael Jordan. Maybe Stoudemaire is the MVP, since evidently, he’s so great! Or maybe the writers are underrating Sean Marion? And let’s not forget the fact that Dallas, the team that let Nash go, has improved its record 2 years in a row, without Nash. Does that make Nowitzki the MVP? Or maybe Nash was holding them back, a cancer, kind of like Steph Marbury, where teams improve when he leaves. I know people won’t vote for Kobe because he’s a jerk, but where would the Lakers be without him? Forget the Cavs without Lebron.

The Heat championship raises several questions. First off, is D. Wade that good, or could the Heat have won with, say Kobe Bryant instead of Wade? Could Kobe have taken a team with Shaq all the way? Maybe, as long as there was a reputed “genius” coach at the helm.

That’s the next question. Is Riley a genius? His coaching record is astounding, in terms of regular season, where 55 wins a year is almost like a minimum, and he collects division titles like, say, baseball’s Bobby Cox.
Riley has now gotten the monkey off his back, having won the championship with the second team, but before that, there was a lot of comparison with Bill Parcells. Both had early success, winning championships, and then became these larger than life gods when they turned around other teams that were at the bottom of the heap. They were built up by the media, and started writing books about success in life, and making motivational speeches. Their multiples turnarounds separated them from the likes of Joe Torre and Phil Jackson, who have a lot of championships, but who have never taken a crappy team way beyond expectations. With Jackson’s championships, he has always had the MVP/Hall of Famer on his team, in a sport with only five players at a time. With Torre, he had meager success for almost 20 years as a manager, and then suddenly the right team and payroll pushed him into the elite.

But for some reason, these 2 coaches had been getting knocked quite a bit. Despite the fact that Parcells has quickly turned around 4 teams, getting each to the playoffs, people are comparing him to Belichick, and saying Parcells never won without Belichick. (How come if a John Gruden wins a Super Bowl, they say, “ah, he worked with Holmgren, who worked with Bill Walsh”, which enhances the reputation of these coaching ancestors, but with Parcells, when his assistants do well, it’s “A Ha!”). Riley has also turned the Knicks and Heat (first tenure) into contenders, well beyond what their rosters would indicate, but was hearing the “but never without Magic” criticisms. As if 20 plus years at the top of the league was a fluke. Riles can now kick back and relax, he has nothing left to prove.

The Knicks
Scott Layden must be rolling over in his grave. Scott Layden is dead? you say. Not really, but I was thinking of all the times I buried the former Knick GM. Now, instead of saying to Scott, “gee, you weren’t so bad”, I will be less forgiving, and say, “See what you started!” The Knicks are an example of what would have happened to the Mets (Glavine, Mo Vaughan) if there were a salary cap in baseball. And it started when they overpaid Ewing at the end of his career out of loyalty, then the Alan Houston mess, and now Isaiah’s Folly. The saddest part of this is that the guy who runs the company where I get phone, cable and internet service from is the same guy who decided that it isn’t worth waiting until Larry Brown turns this around, that it is time to go let Isaiah lead the team.

World Cup
In the last four years, I had forgotten how much bull shit there is in soccer, with the cheap elbows, the whining for calls, but most of all, all that bad acting. Can you imagine if the NBA allowed stretchers out on the court, helped pick up someone off the floor who got hacked going in for a score, or bumped at mid-court? Same guy is running around like nothing happened a few minutes later.

How come you can’t spell “soccer” without s-c-o-r and e, but you can play 90 minutes, plus the mystery extra time, without an s-c-o-r-e?

No, not that this will be yet another Saddam-and-Sports article, but I had the idea that I could generate tax write-offs and make a killing if I wrote an article so bad, no one would read it. Springtime for (name a monstrous dictator) seems like a good place to start. So here are my lamest comments on the state of sports at the moment.

NCAA Hoops.
So far (cause you can always get a shitty final weekend), this is the best tourney I can remember. No blowouts, plenty-o-upsets, and a true Cinderella in the semifinals. There were some gut-wrenching close games, with more blame to the losers than credit to the winners (Gonzaga-UCLA, and Washington-UConn). Congratulations to Providence College, who refused to hire either of their alumni hoopsters Jimmy Laranaga or Billy Donovan. Yeah, Tim Welch of Iona has much more cachet, if that’s what you were looking for.
Congratulations to George Mason, and ‘kyou to those who wanted a 9th Big East team or a fifth ACC team who was 8-8 in conference. Can you imagine Arizona State going 4-4 in the Pac 10 and demanding a shot at the BCS championship of football? Shut up, the tournament should reward good play, not good pedigree. Every bubble team has a loss that was their Alamo, look in the mirror, smell yourself.
And Duke is fast becoming the Mike Mussina of hoops. You still can’t believe it when they are eliminated, but it happens regularly enough that you shouldn’t be surprised.
And Big Baby’s brick-rebound from the stripe against Duke notwithstanding, why do coaches continue to not contest rebounds of late-game free throws while nursing slim leads. (See Mason vs UConn). Do you really need 4 guys back to guard one guy? You can’t contest a miss, or pressure the ball up court?
Prediction: Florida loses to UCLA in the final.

Baseball
World Baseball Classic. Nice first try, but never has there been a premier sporting event that had athletes in their worst playing shape of the year. Maybe try in another four years, but do it like Olympic hockey, shut down the season mid-year for 2 weeks and play in peak shape with expanded rosters to allow for MLB stars to all get some R&R. And let’s make the MLB playoffs round robin, so the worst qualifier can maybe win the championship.

Barry Bonds. Let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt, it’s just innuendo. Until you get a report with specific dates, and specific doses of specific drugs that no one has ever heard of, and now he has to be run out of the game. But how?
Back in 2002, Bud Selig was heavily criticized for letting the All-Star game be tied. The top of the final inning in that game saw both managers consulting with Selig in his box seat, and then the game ended tied. And I’m sitting there saying, “what were they discussing?” Can Jeter pitch? Is it okay if Trevor Hoffman pitches up to 6 more innings?
There should have been no discussion, Selig should have anticipated a tie and that he would be blamed, cause, well, he’s hated. Selig should have done all the talking, as in:
“Torre, if you don’t score in the top of the inning, your pitcher is gonna groove as many fastballs as it takes to end this game with one swing.” And to Brenly:
“Brenly, they can use Sosa’s bat if they have to. But if the Americans score, then your Nationals are going to lay down like lambs 1-2-3. Capeesh?”
But the Commish didn’t listen to me. Now listen up, Bud.
Maybe let Bonds take down the Bambino, this way he can gloat about having the most lefty homers if he wants, but only he cares about it. Don’t let him top Hank Aaron. Run, don’t walk, to the nearest FBI office with all the secret private eye files you have on him (we know they have them), which will contain details of his cash-only memorabilia earnings, and former Ranger owner, George Bush’s IRS can put him on a fast track to the land of slamming doors. Where you sleep with pillows between your knees to soak up all that blood. Not that there’s anything wrong with it. Don’t miss your second chance to do the wrong thing! Call it the Capone-Snyder-McCovey-Rose-Strawberry maneuver.

Tragedy: And in the amazing race to the bottom, Doc Gooden has padded his lead over Darryl Strawberry with his recent drug troubles. Strawberry is expected to concede the race soon. The lengths some people will go to avoid being part of the Mets 8-month long celebration of the greatest sporting comeback ever. Oh yeah, Doc will be missing out on all the fun, 1986, this year ends in a 6. 1986, back when the Mets ruled New York. Take that Yankees! Bill Buckner, oh yeah. Take that Red Sox nation. What? I’m stuck in a time warp? Nineteen forty…. Nineteen forty. Betty Grable, nice gams.

Pre-season predictions:

Playoff qualifiers:

National: Mets (decent enough team, easy competition now that Leo Mazzone is gone, and the Phillies, Marlins, and Expos imploded. Brewers and Reds will nab 2 slots for the central, because the Astros can’ t lose 2 Hall of Famers and still remain competitive, and this is the year Tony LaRussa finally becomes a complete manager, but learning to underachieve in the REGULAR season. Out west, lets go with the Dodgers, in a weak division.

American: Pen in the Yankees, for the same reason, too much depth to not be at a minimum, the best 2nd place team, but this year I expect the Red Sox to run out of steam and fall far off the pace. Yanks win the division, Twins in the central, and Angels out west, with the White Sox and Indians battling for the wild card. With the Sox prevailing.

Cy Youngs: Heuston Street. He continues his meteoric rise, surpassing an aging Mariano as thee closer, and gets a city, or a street named after him in baseball heaven. Dontrelle Willis. Enough said (I couldn’t think of anything write now.) Remember: Bialystock and Bloom, Bialystock and Bloom.

MVP: In the American league, Alex Rodriguez, in a back-to-back performance. His main competitors in the talent field will either not be in contention (Tejada, Ortiz) or will decline in production (Sheffield, Guererro), and in his 3rd year, he will have no nervous issues (in the regular season). With guys on base ahead of him, and protection behind, fuggedaboutit. And in a surprise and refreshing twist, the national MVP will go to someone only those paying close attention this March has ever heard of, Kevin Finnerty, of Arizona.

NFL
Were we really on the brink of labor meltdown? Now focusing on the draft, it’s amazing how the stock of the top players keeps shifting. Brees to New Orleans shook things up, and maybe Leinart or Young slips a bit. Does anyone still think that Reggie Bush is still gonna get 400 all-purpose yards a game in the pros? And what’s with University of Texas “educated” draftee Vince Young? He couldn’t spell eneffel if you gave him the N and the F, and told him to spell it as if it was all one word.
Terrell Owens will behave for one year, because Bill Parcells is not Andy Reid, and Bill Parcells is also not Donovan McNabb. T.O. gambled, had his bluff called, and got screwed last year, and he knows to get his craved-for sunshine, he has to be on the field. The field with the star at the 50, where he will celebrate his first key TD, and where the fans will eat it up.

Winter Olympics
See my comments four months from now about World Cup Soccer.

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Locker Room Chatter
with Peter Murphy
January 16, 2006
Goobers & Raisinettes

Back in 1997, following an heartbreaking home playoff loss by the Giants (no, not the Trey Junkin game, this was the on-side kick/pass interference game), the Giants blew a 10 point lead in the last few minutes vs. the hapless Denny Green-coached Vikings. A highly agitated NY sports radio host, Mike Francesa, was at the game, and in an unprecedented move, insisted to his radio stations that he immediately host an unscheduled post-game call-in show on his day off. This was so he, and the rest of the Giants’ faithful, could vent their frustrations in public without delay.

Likewise, this weekend’s NFL action saw so many strange and interesting things, it has driven me straight to the typewriter, ‘cause there’s just so much to say.

Seahawks-Skins, zzzzzzzzz.

Panthers-Bears, wow that Steve Smith!! He has become what Terrell Owens could have been. And John Fox is now the all-time leading coach in playoff winning percentage, Bill Belichick, thanks for playing; we have some wonderful parting gifts. Fox holds the lead, until his next loss anyway. The loss of De-Sean Foster for the rest of the playoffs will probably spell their doom in the NFC championship game, but I wouldn’t be surprised either if the Panthers end up in the Bowl.

And Broncos-Pats? Well, it’s rare to see a 27-13 game be characterized as “could have gone either way”, but the Pats threw away about 13 easy points, and handed at least 10 easy points to Los Broncos. They had a good run, winning 7 straight in the playoffs (discontinued appearances in the playoffs of course ended their previous 3 game streak), but before we start scratching our head about how Golden Boys Tom Brady and Troy Brown can come up small in a big game, as Pats fans well-know, Troy Brown fumbled twice in the snow vs. Raiders in 2001 (both recovered by one of the game’s true heroes, Larry Izzo), and Brady, famously fumbled to “end” the game in what was later overturned and ruled an incomplete pass (the “tuck”). If you look back at the Pats run, unlike past repeat winners, they won a lot of close playoff games, with 5 of the 10 under Belichick coming by exactly 3 points (2 in Overtime), so the ball was bound to bounce against them sooner or later. And let’s not cry over the referee calls either. Didn’t the NFL have to clarify and emphasize wide-receiver harassment after the 2003 AFC championship game because there were so many uncalled muggings by the Patriots?

But lets face it, the only thing to really talk about after this weekend was Steelers-Colts.

Steelers-Colts: Right or wrong (and it’s wrong), the game will ultimately be all about Peyton Manning. If you have followed Peyton long enough, you know that he has long been known derisively as “Goober”. As in “Ole Goober just can’t win the big game”. Of course, they were talking about beating the Florida Gators at the time, but pro fans, you can follow along.

Tennessee was a powerhouse in Ole Goob’s days there, but they won the Fiesta Bowl and a national championship with a QB called Tee Martin, who followed Manning. He failed in big game after big game. And nowadays, when a player in uniform from, say Texas, pretends to be conducting the band playing the school fights song after the game, people think it’s cute. But Peyton used to do this regularly, which annoyed many an SEC foe. Manning also lost in a close Heisman trophy race, and not necessarily because his play was at fault. A lot of the voters, my dishonest media brethren, voted for Charles Woodson not on talent, but because they didn’t care for Goober’s attitude. He then whined after finishing second, as if the world owed him a Heisman. Yep, Old Goob came into the league as someone who had a lot to prove. It’s funny now to think that Ryan Leaf was almost considered a better prospect in the 1998 NFL draft.

After two 3-13 seasons, the Colts have been a top team in all but one year since 1999. Until 2003, they said he could never win in the playoffs, although he wasn’t usually the reason they lost. The Colts’ defense was always suspect, and lead to the firing of the ultimate can’t-win-in-the-playoffs coach, Jim Mora, now known as Jim Mora, Sr. (zero and 6 lifetime postseason record). This year was supposed to be different, and Tony Dungy was credited with developing a solid all-around squad (including special teams). But was supposed to be the Colts’ year, and they didn’t even win one playoff game. They fell a staggering 6 wins short of a 19-0 season. Again, this loss will hang on Manning, who is a less-likeable Dan Marino (8-10 in the playoffs) for the 21^st century.

As I have warned many times (usually by saying “Mark my words . . . . ”), Goober is a very me-first type of player. He cares too much about his performance and stats over team goals, although now I’m sure he’ll take a super bowl championship over any future in-season accolades. Despite the team kicking ass on the way to 13-0, and challenging Shula’s 1972 Dolphins , he was having more fun and was more animated in 2004 when he was challenging a different Dolphin, the 1984 Dan Marino. Does he realize what Marino’s legacy is? If you saw the post-game press conference Sunday, it’s clear that he is either so selfish or such a fool (or both) that he complained about “problems in protection”, essentially throwing his offensive line under the bus. Knowing he has P.R. issues, why couldn’t he just go through the motions, saying all the right things after a loss. Why be Matt Leinart when you can be Tom Brady?

To be fair, Manning is still a great player. Even adjusting for indoor stadium, and high-flying offensive weapons, his 49 TD season is still good. Shave off 40%, and you’re still at over 30 TDs. The Colts would be worse without him, and just about any other team would be better with him as their QB. It’s not like he sucks. And when a team faces him in the playoffs, they don’t try to take down his receivers with hard hits, or stuff the line to neutralize Edgerrin James. The whole scheme is about disrupting Manning. Other than maybe someone like Michael Vick, or Vince Young, perhaps, the goal isn’t usually to just get the QB, because you don’t always know what they’re going to do. Manning’s play is predictable. That’s basically a salute by the league to his talent. Even during Joe Montana’s hey day, the game wasn’t designed to stop the QB, it was to contain the offense as a whole. Recently, a New York Times columnist complained that it was always Belichick vs. Manning, instead of vs Dungy. Well, truth be told, it is the other coach vs. Manning. the Patriots in their last 2 super bowl years basically had to shut down Manning. They had weeks to get ready, and did an excellent job neutralizing ole Goob. I’d like to see Tom Brady face a Belichick defense in a big game.

And in yesterday’s loss, besides Vanderjagt, the defense didn’t execute very well in some key spots in the first half. Weren’t they supposed to be the difference this year? When Peyton waived off the punter on the 4^th and 2, and converted, leading to a TD a minute later, let’s give him his due. Had they won the game, that would have been a gutsy move for the ages. And let’s not forget the head coach, who was ready to punt down 21-3 with 16 minutes to go. In the aftermath of the game, the Giants are now considering trading Eli Manning and a first round draft pick for Philip Rivers, who has less miles on him. And in the aftermath of the last two weekends, Archie Manning is considering having a vasectomy, for the good of the league.

The Tuck, part 2: Maybe the tuck is in the rule book, but like the tuck, yesterday’s ruling that Polamalu “dropped” the pass, because several seconds after he caught it, and about nine yards away from where he caught it, his knee was still touching the ground when he “fumbled”. This at first seemed like the game was fixed, as most NFL playoff games are. But we were only suspicious when we had already seen a huge non-call on a pass-interference and the bizarre non-call on the 4^th and 1 when everyone on the Colts, as well as in the Stanford band, was off-sides. It seemed the refs were afraid to put the final nail in the Colts’ coffin.

Bill Cowher. You finally found someone you could out-coach. Too bad you never faced Marty Schottenheimer in one of your 5 other AFC championship games. But if you look back at Cowher’s title game failures, he didn’t always have the much better team (home game and higher seed notwithstanding). In the post-season, as a high seed they have lost to the Bills Juggernaut, the Pats twice, Elway’s Broncos during their repeat years, and the Chargers on the last play of the game. O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Roethlisberger last year? None of these guys were the better quarterback. You may have doubts about Cowher’s big-game coaching ability, but wouldn’t you also have to assume that over his 14 years as head coach, he has probably over-achieved during the regular seasons. This is not necessarily the case with the Dungys and the Schottenheimers of the world, who generally have solid regular season teams and should be winning in the playoffs.

Roethlisberger: Shut up about no one giving you a chance. A year ago, you were 15-1, yet were home underdogs in the AFC championship game. And you went out and sucked, as we knew would happen. So don’t bring that crap up.

Tony Dungy: Like Vandejagt, Dungy benefits from having Peyton take most of the hits. Nevertheless, being out-coached, GROSSLY out-coached by Bill Cowher? That’s a big step down from being out-coached by Bill Bellichick, Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis. Now we know Peyton basically calls his own plays, but who is responsible for the failure to get closer than a 46 yard FG, after? You had the entire middle of the field, inside 10 yards to get a first down, and Bettis’ fumble spared all your timeouts. You can overrule a quarterback? What now? What is going to become of the Colts next year, now that the whole world knows how to beat you? This could be it for this version of the Colts, not many teams make the playoffs perennially, and they’ve made it four in a row, and 6 of the last 7 years. Is their window closing? Ask the Eagles how they feel, after 5 straight playoff seasons, while never losing in the first round, but winning no championships. Nothing lasts forever. Dungy, you’re time is running out too!

Player of the game? Troy Polamolamphetamine, who ran all the way back to Pittsburgh after the game. He never slows down, but for the 2^nd week in a row, his interception is followed by a blunder. Last week, the pitch on the return, and yesterday, causing his own fumble. Still, I love his energy and hustle, if not his girly-hairdo.

Vanderjagt: The “idiot kicker” has done this before. Eerily, he blew a game-winner, also about 25 feet wide right, well before Manning was known for not winning big NFL games. Okay, so maybe it wasn’t all Manning’s fault even back in 2000 vs. Miami. He also blew a tying FG in the 2004 Thursday night opener in Foxboro, the loss that made the Colts miss out on the bye and the home game before going down in flames to the Patriots. However, immediately prior to all 3 Vanderjerk failures, the Colts made huge set up mistakes. In the 2000 playoffs, the Colts turned down a penalty to force 4^th and 1 and the kick, instead of 3^rd and 7, because they felt they were within his FG range. Perhaps, they could have gotten a first down, and kicked from closer. And in the regular season loss in Foxboro, don’t forget that Manning was sacked by Willie McGinest on a 3^rd and goal trying for the win. The loss of about 10 yards evidently pushed the Colts out of his range, and he missed by inches. Maybe next time they face a 3^rd and 2, they should let the kicker call the play.

Key and untalked about play of the game: On Harper’s 44 yard fumble return with a minute left, replay shows that unless he pulls a Champ Bailey, if Harper makes the determination that he will out run Roethlisberger on the right sideline, instead of thinking he has to juke him back to the inside, then he probably scores, or at least gets another 40 yards. This will haunt that man until they win a Super Bowl, if ever.

Looking ahead? It’s wide open, any combination of wins for these next three games is believable. There’s a 3/4ths chance that the winner will be either first time franchise or first for a coach. My money is on a rematch of 8 years ago, Shanahan vs. Holmgren, with Denver taking the title, leaving the other 3 streaks of futility in tact.

So the holidays are over, but do they ever really end, or do they just string together without missing a beat? No sooner did we all toss out the Christmas Trees, then did stores start selling Martin Luther King Day candy. It never lets up.

But now that most of the world is back to work, the real work of the NFL season begins. College football is behind us (but for the much-awaited college all-star games), and baseball’s hot stove is overheating.

The Rose Bowl:
I have been criticized for not saying the phrase “instant classic” enough. Well this was just that. The Rose Bowl started with a lot of obvious tension among the players, which seemed to make both teams mistake-prone. This made for a better first half, with no blowout as was seen in last year’s final. The 2^nd half was an offensive show of force, with both teams running up and down the field.

Vince Young, a game for the ages, but what’s up with that throwing motion? And did he hit one covered receiver the whole game? Not only could USC not tackle well, they played a type of zone coverage that left guys wide open short of 15 yards down field. It made it easy to pick them apart. And how come everyone on the Texas D knew Lendale White was going to run it on 4^th and 1 with 2 minutes left (personally, I would have given the ball to Heisman winner, Reggie Bush, but that would have required throwing into cent-uple coverage, as Bush was surrounded by about 100 other bench-bound Trojans on the play), yet USC couldn’t figure the obvious Vince Young-gonna-run-it-on-every-key-play strategy the Longhorns used in the last six minutes?

I have to admit, I was always surprised with Pete Carroll’s dominance in college, especially since he runs the defense, and it was their offense that carried them through the 34-win streak. Yet, I was also hesitating in criticizing him. But last night was a frightening reminder of Cliff Robertson’s “Charly”, based on the book “Flowers from Algernon”. Is Pete Carroll, the erstwhile genius, reverting back to the simpleton he so often appeared to be? Leinart’s whine about USC being the better team may actually be true, but coaching let them down. Gambling on 4^th down (1 for 3), blowing a much-needed timeout on an extra point conversion, and not “spying” Vince Young in the 4^th quarter were key coaching blunders by the Trojan staff.

Ironically, the top 3 Heisman vote getters this year raised some concerns about their NFL status, in my eyes. Since November, people have been drooling over their losing teams reminiscent of when Patrick Ewing was coming out of college. Bush is flashy, but look around the league at all the top running backs that no one heard of in college. NFL running is often a function of line blocking, and a complimentary good passing game, which keeps safeties deep. Bush had a so-so game. Leinart doesn’t seem like the future Carson Palmer just yet, and showed a little too much Pennington-like air under some of his passes. And Vince Young didn’t complete or attempt anything deep or in coverage, and will no-doubt be in for a surprise if he thinks NFL defenses will allow him to run so free. And his arm is suspect. Lendale White’s stock may have risen, however.

In other Bowl games:
Like pre-teen Spin-the-Bottle ^(TM), football is a game of inches. In the Fiesta Bowl, the last game ever in Tostitos Stadium, Notre Dame, on 2 key plays, came up just a mere120 inches short. That’s how close their safeties came to catching two back-breaking bombs thrown by Ohio State’s QB. Notre Dame came up short again, and seemed overmatched upfront vs. the OSU defense, and clearly needs more speed on defense. Still, it was good to see ND back in the BCS bowl, if only to see ND get to share $14 million appearance fee with no one, and to hear Brent Musburger talk for four hours about Brady Quinn’s sister.

While there didn’t seem to be a sense that anything was at stake, there were some exciting bowl games. In another “Instant Classic” Alabama is back on the map, and got a hard-fought win against a feisty Texas Tech team. Their buzzer-beating FG limped over the bar. It was not the prettiest thing in the world, but neither is Laura Quinn. But a win is a win.

It didn’t take an avalanche of reader mail for me to admit I was wrong that Joe Paterno should be fired (after five losing seasons). With their revamped “modern” offense, evidently, you can teach an old dog new tricks . . . If you beat him over the head for five years, and threaten to tarnish his legacy. Bobby Bowden, however, should hang ’em up. The game has passed HIM by.

To renew my annual membership in the “we need a playoff” club, wouldn’t it be great to see teams like Penn State and Ohio State move on to the next round? With their tough defenses, they can stay on the field with anyone.

NFL
There were very few great match-ups the final weeks of the regular season, as most teams that had something at stake were playing teams that had given up. But that’s all behind us now. The season had a few interesting twists and turns, if you can call T.O. interesting. Give him credit though, at least there were no “Towel” moments this year.

Best player: Larry Johnson. With over 1,400 yards in the final 8 games and 21 total TDs, the Chiefs must be drooling (at the thought of being able to trade Priest Holmes).

Best Coach: Lovie Smith. He has da Bears playing his brand of defense, which has carried them all the way to a likely second-round exit.

Luckiest: Patriots. Yes, they were snake bitten with numerous injuries, but this occurred in a down year for what has been the NFL’s best division. The Jets fell apart, the Bills never got going, and Miami took time to gel. The AFC East had captured 14 of the AFC’s last 26 wild card berths over the last 10 years, and had accounted for 4 of the last 9 AFC Super Bowl entrants. They also draw the weakest team in the playoffs for the first round (see predictions).

Least Lucky: Dallas. They lost a couple games in incredible fashion, and were left short of the playoffs by a late-season run by the Skins. Perhaps the best team to not make the playoffs.

Good Riddance: Take the blinders off, ESPN. Favre is toast, and played like . . . like other quarterbacks who lost their All-Pro running backs and have lousy receivers. Say, Brooks Bollinger. And during all those Favre montages, who was that young guy in the Favre jersey making all those great plays? Don’t you have any from this century?
Other QBs who will or should hang them up: Flutie, Testaverde, Bledsoe, Warner, and Blanda. Good riddance to Herman Edwards. I’ll miss his responses in press conferences, much as I miss Jim Fassel’s.

I would look for the Steelers to ramp up the offense, gaining a road win vs. the Bengals, before falling to the Super Bowl bound Colts. The Patriots will easily win their wild card matchup with the Jags, prompting endless discussion of Brady’s 10-0 playoff streak. This is of course bogus, for four reasons: First, the team, in a must win or face elimination game in late December 2002, lost to the eventual AFC east champ Jets, and didn’t make the playoffs. The streak is not continuous, so is inherently bogus. Second, on an adjusted basis, his record is really 6-1 (adjusted for games featuring late fumbles on sacks that are overturned allowing you to tie the score and win in overtime). Third, Drew Bledsoe threw over 100 yards in relief, and threw the Pats only TD pass in that 24-17 win, so let’s say Brady is 5-1, or maybe 5 ½ and 1, adjusted. Fourth: Teams win games, not Quarterbacks. Aren’t the Patriots the epitome of this truth?

(Okay, to be fair and consistent, Derek Jeter’s “adjusted” ALCS career batting average is only .256 instead of .262, since that kid reached over the fence to pull his flyout into the stands, and his career combined ALCS and World Series batting average is only .276 instead of .279, vs a career regular season batting average of .314 for “Mr. Clutch”. . . . only .276!!. (Armando Beniteziz post-season E.R.A. dips to 3.26 from 3.56)

I think we were talking about the AFC playoffs? Oh yeah, the magic soon ends for the Patriots, losing a tough game to a better-rested Denver at Mile High.

NFC:
I expect the Giants to eke out a win at home in the first round, and then to move on to Chicago and end the Bears fantasy. This second game requires a road win for the surging Skins over the Simms-led Bucs, who aren’t really a good team. The game will, however, be an “Instant Classic”. The Skins will then be no match for a well-rested Seahawks. The extra week off and the home field advantage will spell doom for the Giants, which will raise new complaints about all those missed FGs from Jay Feely in the regular season game, which denied the Giants themselves the coveted bye and the 2^nd seed. But quickly, those complaints will dissipate, with Giants fans (those over age 9 anyway) recalling the Trey Junkin playoff mishap from three years ago as much worse. (Note: By getting my annual Trey Junkin reference out of the way so early in 2006, I have the option of using it again later in 2006, without seeming repetitive of fixated on the Trey Junkin mishap).

Super Bowl:
I will go with the Colts here, just because of the overall AFC dominance of the past decade. The Colts do have two strong sides, and will benefit from the climate control of Ford Field. Peyton Manning detractors, and he knows who he is, will be torn by the possibility of rooting against Tony Dungy’s team, while the rest of the country, sans Seattleians, will be pulling for Dungy amidst his family tragedy.

While I had already predicted the end of the Red Sox 3-year playoff run, I think the Johnny Damon deal sealed it. Yanks stole away 3^rd best hitter, and table setter for the Sox. But the real story is the pitching. Sox haven’t won the division since 1995, so even at their best, they were a wild card team. I think that they played over their heads in 2005, and though they remain talented, probably don’t have the grit or the starting pitching they had in 2004 to make it. I am assuming the new Schilling, not the (good) Old Schilling will show up in 2006. The Yanks, meanwhile, still have a solid lineup, and Damon improves it. Getting Damon allows Yanks to slot down Jeter and A-Rod to their more natural slots. If Giambi and Sheffield have solid years, then the lineup will make up for the deficiencies in the starting lineup, and Yanks should coast to a division win.

The Mets meanwhile, are winning the NL East battle of attrition. It’s likely that in 2005, Braves and Nationals played above their roster talent, and haven’t improved significantly. Phillies and Marlins have gotten weaker over the off-season, while the Mets have added depth. Losing Piazza won’t harm them, but another year of experience will help Reyes and Wright, so the Mets should win their division, even without Seo in the rotation, and with or without Manny Ramirez, who as of press time, is staying put in Boston. But that’s just Manny being Manny. (Do you think in the Ramirez home, when their three kids are misbehaving, and Mrs. Ramirez starts yelling that these kids are driving me crazy, that Manny tells her to calm down, that it’s just Manuelito, Manny Junior, and little Manny being Manny?)
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The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, part 2
by Peter Murphy
October 5, 2005

Is there a better time of year than early autumn weekends when you don’t have to schlep to the beach, the weather is still great but not oppressively hot, and most importantly, the NFL regular season and baseball post-season are heating up. I will focus here on baseball.

Baseball Regular Season Awards:
Again, the BWAA is gonna yank my credentials for disclosing my votes ahead of time. I’m pretty much sticking with my mid-season picks, with slight changes. To tip my hand regarding MVP, I’ll mention upfront that I disagree with the notion that “value” is heavily slanted to players on winning teams. Now, while in many cases, you could support the argument that without a certain top player, a certain team would not have made the playoffs. But in most cases, let’s take the Yankees and Red Sox for example; by making the playoffs by such a slim margin (2 games over the Indians), each team probably has several players that made the difference. In the Yankees case, you could cite Rivera, Sheff, A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui, Randy Johnson, and let’s not forget Jeter. That’s 7 guys. Using the playoff out is what cost Lou Gehrig and Ted Williams (twice) MVPs despite winning triple crowns. It cost the hated Albert Belle the title in favor of Mo Vaughan in 1995. At the time, it was said that Vaughan was a leader in the clubhouse, and was a better fielder than Belle. You can stop laughing (or crying) now, Mets fans. I heard some radio pundits this weekend say that Saturday’s victory clinches the MVP for A-Rod, because they won their division. The next day, in what started out as a must-win, the Red Sox clinched a spot, and matched the Yankees 95-win total (depriving the Yanks of the 2^nd seed). Does that mean that suddenly Manny Ramirez should get the MVP over A-Rod, who couldn’t prevent a 10-1 loss (as if he was going to pull out another 10-RBI game)? In 1998, McGwire won the epic chase for Maris, but Sosa was a near unanimous MVP. Why? Because the Cubs won a whopping 90 games, 7 more than the Cardinals. Did that mean that if you had traded those players, the Cardinals would have made the playoffs? Possible, but doubtful. And is 90 a valuable win total? What about 82? Could the best 2005-Padre be considered for MVP? They made the playoffs. To me, MVP is for the year’s best player, and can include pitchers.

NL MVP:
Sticking with Derek Lee. He led the majors in average, 4^th in HR’s, and bad teammates held him back in RBI. Can steal a base too. Andruw Jones, whose first name is spelled wrong according to my spell check, was too Kingman like at the plate, although he is also a great fielder. Believe it or not, this 50-homer guy scored ONLY 95 runs (and batted a paltry .262). Pujols gets my 2^nd place vote.

AL MVP:
I’m actually switching to A-Rod. He had the best totals in the crown categories; plays good defense, and can steal a base. He’s won it before (an exception, while on the 4^th place Rangers). My mid-season pick, Ortiz, gets my 2^nd place vote. Ortiz is a clutch player (though not on base or with a glove), and much has been made of his late-inning prowess and his average with men on base. In baseball history, guess what player has the highest single-season batting average with men on base?