Locker Room Chatter
with Peter Murphy
Summer in Calcutta November 16, 2006
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, Part 2 October
3, 2006
Yankee
Doodle
Goobers
& Raisinettes
Back to Work January
6, 2006
2005
The
Most Wonderful Time of the Year, Part 2
Gimme A Break
July
11,
2005
Spring Fling
May 9, 2005
The Five Sports People You
Meet in HELL
February 12, 2005
That’s
A Rap
Snowbound
January
24, 2005
2004
The
Longest Year December 21, 2004
Reader Survey
November 19, 2004
#!@%&*!
(Curses) October
28, 2004
Regular
Season Wrap-Up
Pennant Push September
20, 2004
Dog
Dayz August
23, 2004
The
Readers Strike Back July
9, 2004
The
June Swoon June
6, 2004
April
Showers
The
Most Wonderful Time of the Year
Winter
Potpourri
Mid
Winter Night's Musings January
20, 2004
2003
Another
Year Wiser December 29,
2003
Mid-Indian
Summer Musings
Baseball
Playoffs Oct.
26, 2003
Baseball
Regular Season Wrapup
Sept.
29, 2003
How to win a
World Series Sept.
2, 2003
Mid-Summer Musings July 25,
2003
What's
Luck Got to Do With It? June 30,
2003
Spring Musings
May
5, 2003
Baseball Season
Preview and Predictions April 1,
2003
March Anger, and other End-of-Winter
Musings March 18,
2003
That's a Wrap
January 28,
2003
2002
Book and Movie
Review: "The Boyz -N- the Junction" December
8, 2002
NBA Preview:
Champions No More October
30, 2002
Major League
Baseball Individual Awards September
30, 2002
Major League
Baseball Playoffs September
13, 2002
College Football
August 23, 2002
Baseball's
Labor Woes
August 8, 2002
Mid-year
Musings
July 22, 2002
Summer in Calcutta
by Peter Murphy
November 16, 2006
The title is the politically correct way to describe this time of year, since you can’t say Indian Summer anymore, I think. It’s the time of year to look back at the baseball season just ended, and to gear up for the stretch run of college
and pro football. That the NBA and NHL season’s just started is of no consequence. And of course, do not even mention college
basketball until after the Super Bowl.
Baseball
Postseason
Since there were several lousy teams, and not a ton of drama (3 series sweeps, and 3 series where the winner dropped but one
game),
The Mets-Cards game 7 got lost in the shuffle, with the Endy Chavez’ play for the ages wiped out by the team’s failure. Of the 8 playoff teams, I would suspect maybe 3 will return to post-season next year, but that’s still a long way off.
This post-season had teams that showed they can hit and pitch, but not necessarily know how to play baseball:
Yankees, Twins, and Tigers, all were done in by a lack of fundamentals. And while they downplay it in baseball as compared to football, the 2006 Cardinals were the rare case when a championship can be attributed mainly to the manager, (as would also have happened with the Tigers, if they had won). I guess 4-time manager of the year LaRussa finally got the monkey off his back after being 1 for 9 in previous years when reaching the final 4. He’s no Bobby Cox.
Hot Stove Issues
But on to next year. The Mets and Yanks seem to have the money, desire and will to compete for free agents, and compete they will, for the limited number of solid starting pitchers. The Mets could use some outfield help at the corners, and need David Wright to get back on track. Barring some major move by a division opponent (say, Soriano to the
Phillies),
the Mets should win the East, 2nd at worst. Yankees are probably good to go as is, now that Mussina is back in the fold, but they will still try to shore up the team. Because of depth in hitting, Abreu will easily replace Sheffield next year, and offense won’t be the problem. Barry Zito and a few others will benefit from the 2006 post-season’s emphasis on quality pitching, making it a seller’s market.
But the big story, $51 million for the pain/pleasure of talking to Scott Boras. I’ll cut to the chase.
I expect they will not sign Daisuke Matsuzaka. There are several reasons for this:
They will come to their senses.
- There will be no win-win contract between the player (and his evil agent) and the team.
Only the Seibu Lions owner makes out for sure if the deal is done. Either the player gets below market value as the Red Sox get a deal for a combined salary and negotiation fee they can live with, or the Red Sox shell out way to much total average annual cost.
- Maybe they don’t intend to sign him, but just keep him away from the Yanks
- Even though I disagreed with the Rangers’ excuse for dumping A-Rod three years ago,
(that he absorbed too much salary for them to be competitive), it is true the future moves the Red Sox wouldn’t be able to make are just too great.
- It’s not a case of Matsuzaka now or nothing. If they can’t do a deal, they may end up with Barry
Zito, Mark Mulder,Roger Clemens, or Andy Pettite, and probably others in future years.
- If they do sign him, anything less than 18 wins and anything above 3.20 ERA will be a bust, and that’s too much pressure to put on a guy.
- It will dawn on the Sox that this guy is unproven as a major leaguer. He is not Lebron James, a lock.
He is not Eli Manning, worth 2 # draft picks. He is not ARod of the year 2000, who has won 2 MVP’s since then, but was headed to the HOF before then. Matsuzaka hasn’t done it here yet, so there is some speculation. Sure his ball moves, but how many of his outs were deep flies that might be HRs with MLB sluggers?
- Mathematically, consider this matrix of potential contract lengths, and annual salaries for the player.
The figure at the right is the total average cost, including level spread out of the $51 million rights fee.
$ are shown in Millions.
|
Years |
To Player |
$ox
Cost |
|
3 |
$5 |
$22 |
|
5 |
$5 |
$15 |
|
7 |
$5 |
$12 |
|
10 |
$5 |
$10 |
|
3 |
$8 |
$25 |
|
5 |
$8 |
$18 |
|
7 |
$8 |
$15 |
|
10 |
$8 |
$13 |
|
3 |
$11 |
$28 |
|
5 |
$11 |
$21 |
|
7 |
$11 |
$18 |
|
10 |
$11 |
$16 |
|
3 |
$14 |
$31 |
|
5 |
$14 |
$24 |
|
7 |
$14 |
$21 |
|
10 |
$14 |
$19 |
The only figures that should seem reasonable to the Red Sox are those below $18 million per year,
which rules out any thing less than 5 years. But the player will not accept any length deal for only $5 million,
knowing the team will pay double or triple that, since he only need wait one year to become a complete free agent.
The same applies if the player would earn only $8 million, leaving 60% to 125% of upside on the table.
So realistically, the deal can only be done for a salary above $10 million, and for at least 7 years.
At that point, the lesson of Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton comes into play. While hitters can deteriorate over a long contract, they are still usually productive to some extent, or you can hide them in the lineup.
But a starting pitcher, after several years, could be useless (arm/shoulder injury), or if ineffective enough that you would rather not give them the ball at all.
College Football
(My comments here come before the weekend Michigan-Ohio State game.)
I think the BCS system gets a little more crazy every year. Because Ohio State seems so formidable,
and so many other elite teams had a loss early on, the focus on who would move up in the polls, combined with 2 undefeated
(unchallenged) Big East teams late in the year has added to the volume of debate.
I have always said a playoff is the way to go, but now I’d settle for the “Bowls Plus 1” concept.
As it stands, in most years, the second team in the BCS race is not discernible from the third or fourth.
How come West Virginia was poised, and then Louisville, to rise to the top spot if undefeated, but Rutgers (say they defeat both) will have no shot, even though all three have played essentially the same schedule.
And how come all 3 Big East contenders are in the top 10 of the BCS, when their schedule has been derided so greatly?
They’re all like 3-0 vs UCONN, Syracuse, and So. Fla. So what? The computers are obviously a joke having Rutgers second and Ohio State third.
The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will play for the title, against either of
USC, Notre Dame, Florida or Arkansas, or maybe even a rematch.
There are probably no other possibilities. So the system needs obvious reforms.
From now until the inevitable playoff system is established (Does anyone doubt that by 2020 there will be a playoff, and we will regret the wasted years of intransigence on the part of the “College Presidents”) they should establish a rule barring a non-conference champion
(not including independents) from the BCS championship game.
In 2001, Nebraska played for the title, and didn’t even APPEAR in the Big-12 championship game.
In 2003, Oklahoma was destroyed in the Big 12 final, yet still got to the big game.
(Both teams played like crap in losing the BCS championship game.)
I say this only because there is some talk of a Big-10 rematch. Some have said that if either team loses late, or close, or whatever, they should get a second chance.
Well, Ohio State has been the top dog all year. The rest of the country has two more cracks at them this season.
If there were only two Flu Shots left in the entire country, would you give them both to the same guy?
To Dick Cheney? Of course not. Sorry Michigan, Ohio State does not have to beat you twice to win it all.
This upcoming game is your playoff game. (Does anyone doubt that if Michigan won the Big Chill game, and could only be champion by beating OSU twice that MU fans would be bitching up a storm.
And then there’s all the beat-the-team-that-beat-the-team nonsense. Suppose Florida beats Arkansas in the SEC final, but not as badly as USC did opening night.
Is that a factor? If Notre Dame wins out and is sitting pretty with one loss, does a one-loss Michigan team have a beef?
In the Kevin Bacon game of College Football, everyone with a loss has beaten a team that beat a team . .. . yada
yada, that beat the team that is your sole vanquisher.
But alas, the system could be worse, and was 40 years ago. In 1966, the two-time defending champion (neither time undefeated), Alabama Crimson Tide BEGAN the year as the pre-season number one ranked team, won all their games (the only unbeaten-untied team) in the tough SEC, and destroyed Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl, yet ended up as the third ranked team.
Back then, Notre Dame did not yet play in Bowl games (there were only 8 bowls), and Michigan State, who tied Notre Dame and finished second, was prohibited by Big 10 rules of playing in a bowl in consecutive years.
Prediction: USC and OSU are too tough in their respective rivalry games, and meet for the national title.
NFL
It looks like there are again more solid teams in the AFC, but enough strength in the NFC to make the post-season a toss up in that regard. Most of the divisions are sown up (Seattle, Colts, Bears, Ravens), but recent losses (Pats and Giants) have brought those
in the East back to life. Wild Cards will be hard to come by, with the Chargers or Broncos having a leg up for one in the AFC, but a complicated
NFC, with several quality teams having squandered games in the first nine that they will regret.
Cowboys, Jets, and Falcons come to mind, as do the Panthers.
Other notes
- Peyton Manning is answering at least some criticism, by winning without
Edgerin, and winning most games close.
That’s called clutch, and talented. But, until he makes the Super Bowl, he’ll have to settle for the Hall of Fame, and tons of dough in endorsements and salary. If you still don’t like this guy, then ask yourself how many teams would trade their QB for him, straight up? When you get to 3, stop, and start over, you’ve gone too far.
- The Jets are playing everyone tough, and are one of 3 teams with a winning record (5-4) who have been outscored.
Credit the coach. But, even though their remaining schedule is not tough, they will rue the loss to the hapless Browns.
- Denny Green will never work again, after this year.
- Tiki Barber: Let him go. Why does he have to get pounded into a wheel chair? Who are we to say he should go until he’s
HOF, or has a ring.
Does he tell you what to do? (Okay, he gets millions to suggest to you that you buy products he pitches, but he really isn’t emotional about whether you do it or not).
I bet Curtis Martin wished he hung it up after the 2004 season.
Potpourri
I couldn’t let the passing of Red Auerbach go without comment. Despite 20 years in the woods, the Celts are still the all-time team of the NBA, and that’s due to Red.
Despite many virtues, I was most impressed with his string of unorthodox acquisitions that set the stage for their dominance.
He started by getting Bill Sharman, who everyone else assumed would play baseball.
A gutsy trade giving him a shot at Bill Russell, who dominated for over a decade.
By drafting an ABA player, who later signed with another team, he was able to finagle the draft pick that brought Paul Silas aboard.
Great trades brought in Cowens, and enabled the Celts to nab Parrish and McHale in the same draft.
And of course, tapping into Larry Bird a year before he left college lead to dominance in the 1980s.
By the mid-80s, his Midas Touch was legendary. So much so that during the most exciting sports-related non-sporting event ever (the NBA Lottery), Red almost gave me a heart attack.
Watching with several Celts fans, the 7 lottery General Managers paraded around, each grabbing one large envelope from the bowl.
When it was Red’s turn, he picked up an envelope, and then dropped it. Assuming the fix was in, we were not surprised when the Celts ended up with the second pick in the draft, despite having just won the NBA title for the 3rd time in 6 years.
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, Part 2
by Peter Murphy
October 3, 2006
There are several most wonderful times of the year. The first comes in March, as the NCAA tournament comes around, just as the crack of the baseball bat emerges from hibernation. The second is now, as baseball’s post-season kicks off, just as college and pro football season’s are being made or lost.
Football
Shaping up to be a good NFL season, but college football lacks drama, given that so few of the remaining unbeaten teams will square off in-season in must-see games. Ohio State has one game of danger, the suddenly revitalized Michigan Wolverines. Will any SEC team survive unbeaten, which is becoming crucial to get the BCS championship bid? Is Rutgers for real? And when did the Heisman trophy become the “who-among-players-on-top-teams-had-gaudy-stats-in-key-games-and,-if-a-quarterback,-played-on-an-undefeated-team” Award?
NFL Tidbits
Peyton Manning is more the reason for Marvin Harrison’s success than vice-versa. That is becoming obvious. Still, a Super Bowl appearance will be his only vindication, even if he wins his 3rd regular season MVP award in 2006.
In a related note, the Giants just traded their 1st round draft pick in 2015 for Peyton Manning's oldest son, Peyton Manning Jr, a quarterback. Figure they'll eventually get it right.
Did Jeremy Shockey really perform the ubiquitous first down signal after bouncing up from a catch-and-tackle with ZERO seconds left in a 12 point loss? (Answer: YES). Did he expect them to measure?
If Michael Vick doesn’t win the Super Bowl this year, I would recommend the Falcons fire Jim Mora Jr. But only if they hire the soon-to-be fired Marty Schottenheimer. This way, they can go from Dan Reeves, to a coach named Jim Mora, to Marty. And then, they can sit and wonder why they never win, while we all laugh at them.
I never believed Terrell Owens attempted suicide. I think Parcells messed with his medicine in an attempted MURDER! Which is more plausible?
It will be fun to follow the Giants and Jets, both on their way to 8-8, and see the contrast as every Jet win (and several losses) are celebrated as evidence of progress and the coach’s ability to get them to play as a team, while the Giants get hacked to death with external criticism and internal strife.
Next week’s big matchup will be Dallas at Philadelphia. I wonder if anyone from Dallas used to play for Philadelphia, and if that will matter in the network’s coverage of the game?
Baseball
There was a lot of promise coming into September for some great pennant races. But most fizzled out. Cardinals put a scare into everyone except their opponents, by feigning complete collapse. Don’t expect them to last long. The east divisions also were devoid of drama for the final 8 weeks, as the Red Sox began the long descent into mediocrity. Or more likely, their slow descent into a long period of mediocrity. They will not likely contend until the team is completely rebuilt. The White Sox proved you can’t out run a double jinx. In baseball, “Repeat” can never be used in same sentence as “Sox”, or “Chicago”.
End-of-Season Awards:
Again, I’m probably on thin ice with the BWAA for revealing my votes, but I say more of us with the privilege of voting should lay it on the line for our readers. And even though I was suspended the year I dared to be the only writer to vote Albert Belle ahead of Mo Vaughan (1995 MVP) and then bragged about it, most of the powers that be’d at that time have moved on, so I feel safe that I will retain my voting privileges despite my maverick ways.
MVP:
I have never gotten sucked into this phony debate about what is “value”, as an excuse to discriminate against, say, hitters on teams with lousy pitching. Now that the Phillies have fallen short of the post-season, Ryan Howard’s supporters are defining value as having “held the team in the race”. So now, being in contention on Labor Day is the new qualifying standard for studs on teams that don’t make the playoffs? Why not have the trading deadline as the cutoff, which would make Big Papi eligible for consideration? Or the all-star break, which would only make Devil Rays ineligible?
Nahh, I always vote for the guy who I think had the best all around season. In the
N.L., I give the nod to Ryan Howard. Best power numbers, and hit for high average. He would have done more damage with some lineup protection. But it’s close. 2nd place goes to
Pujols, (whose Cardinals had a higher winning percentage in games he didn’t play in, and thus would have missed the playoffs if he played more?), who had some clutch hits, and is still the long-term bet for best all around player. Honorable mention to Chase
Utley, Miguel Cabrera, and Lance Berkman.
In the A.L., it’s a tough choice, since there are so many guys with great numbers in the crown categories. If you factor in carrying a team, Vlad Guerrero probably would get the nod among guys with strong power and average numbers. Ortiz, had an insane year numbers wise, but I still believe Manny is the straw that stirs the Red Sox, and without Manny, there would be no reason to pitch to the Big P. Other candidates include Twins Mauer and
Morneau, White Sox Dye, Thome, and Konerko, with Jeter, Tejada, and Hafner all ranked in my top 10. I didn’t mention Frank Thomas, because .270 hitters can’t win the MVP, unless they are also pitchers. In the end, I went with
Morneau, who had the most impressive combination of power and average, among guys who, without mentioning any names, didn’t quit on their teams in August. (Hint: That was just “guys who quit on their teams in August” being “guys who quit on their teams in August”.)
Jeter had a great year, and has definitely produced more in line with his lofty salary this year than in past years. Jeter’s Yanks ran away with an unusually weak AL East. But Jeter’s year, was not as good as the year he had in 1999 when he finished 6th in MVP voting while playing in a less-stacked Yankee lineup
(Knoblauch, Brosius, O’Neill, Chili Davis) that eeked out a division title over the Red Sox. And I’m not saying that because 95% of hitters in the league who bat behind Cano and Damon could end up with a 2-digit RBI total (the other 5% of hitters would have a 3-digit total). This annual campaign to push for a Yankee (I blame ESPN) isn’t as annoying as in other years (remember 2003, when the Jorge Posada candidacy pushed his 30 HR/101 RBI and .281 average to a 3rd place finish). As good as a player he is, I think he’s getting too much credit for their 10-game victory over the best team in Canada. Nevertheless, I think other top players will have their votes split
(Mauer, Morneau for instance), and Jeter will win the award this year. But it did start for Jeter in June, after a few injuries when they were in 2nd place. Ironically, in a year where everyone agrees that the Yankees have their most stacked lineup in decades (Matsui,
Posada, Cano is the BOTTOM of their order), for the first time in a long time, no other Yankee made a strong push to take votes away from their leading candidate.
Cy Young:
Johan Santana is an obvious unanimous lock for AL Cy. He’s clearly the best pitcher. Kudos to
C.M. Wang, who, even though he couldn’t hold the legendary C.M. Newton’s clipboard, is nevertheless, one of the best C.M.’s to come around in a while. Kudos also to Jon
Papelbon, who gave surrendered earned runs in only 6 games this year, or about one a month. 0.92
E.R.A. is stunning, and would merit Cy consideration in any year.
For the NL, since ya have to give one out, I’ll give the nod to Roy Oswalt, the only starter with a sub-3
E.R.A. Trevor Hoffman? Something about having ZERO victories rubs me the wrong way.
Rookie of the Year:
When any rookie has a year that is outstanding even by veteran’s standpoint, I usually give them the nod for ROY. Not an infielder hitting .315 with 19
HRs, or a starter winning 13 games. But having an E.R.A. of .092, with 30+ saves is remarkable. Jon Papelbon gets my AL ROY vote. In the
N.L., I give the nod to Ryan Zimmerman or the Montreal Internationals, with Florida’s Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez also
medaling.
Manager of the Year:
Despite their weak finishes, I’m sticking with Jim Leyland, and Joe
Girardi, who were my mid-year picks. Since it’s already a done deal that Girardi is toast, the excuses the Marlins front office made up to jettison a rookie manager seem odd. If he needs work on communication or strategy, and he’s in his 10th year, or 3rd gig, fine. But shouldn’t it be assumed that Girardi could improve on those things with experience? Well that’s the Marlins for you. They will never win the World Series again, until their next one (circa 2009).
Go Away player of the Year:
Roger Clemens. He sits out the part of the year where they do all the drug testing, and then soaks up a huge amount of team payroll, only to deliver them short of the playoffs. Not that it was his fault, but if he was on the Astros the whole season, maybe they are still playing. With this half-a-season style, he’s more of a cross between Pedro Martinez, and Carl
Pavano.
Playoff Predictions:
In an homage to Bill Murray, I will immediately eliminate the Cardinals and Tigers from the board. No discussion needed.
For first round matchups worth discussing, I think the Twins will struggle vs. the A’s, but on balance, their pitching and hitting should carry them through to the ALCS in 4 or 5. And my gut tells me that the Mets, who won with spunk and relief pitching all year, will put together enough big innings vs. the Dodgers to make it through in 4 games.
For the league championships, the Twins are closer to the Yankees than most people think. They have several good hitters, and a team spirit that has served them well. They had a solid 4-month run of above average baseball, winning baseball’s toughest division. Plus, as good as the Yankees are, a lot of the fear in the lineup is based on reputation. For example, while Jeter and Cano were solid all year, A Rod,
Giambi, and Damon struggled down the stretch. And Sheffield and Matsui are just returning from the
D.L., so it’s not automatic that they will hit .300 throughout the post season. And a strong argument can be made that the Twins have the offensive advantage for at least 3 of the 9 positions (C,
IB, CF). The also have the league’s best starter, and a closer who has been playing well all year. Twins hit .287, highest in the major this year. But on balance, the Yankees don’t have enough weaknesses to allow the Twins to win 4 of 7. The Yankees depth is always unmatched, and in a tight game, they can run up better pinch hitters (Williams, Cabrera) than the Twins. The Yankees have 3 quality starters, the Twins do, if you count Santana 3
times. The Yanks will win the ALCS in 6.
In the NLCS, Mets-Padres is hard to predict, because even though the Mets seem to have the better roster, their starting pitching is at a low point, and the Padres fought their way into the playoffs. In a tossup, I’ll pick the Mets in 6, based on more run-scoring ability.
For the World Series, I think it all comes down to the Michael Young vs.Trevor Hoffman
match-up. This determined home field. Actually, I never make picks based on home field site, but give the Yankees the edge, winning in 6, given the aforementioned depth (In the 10th inning of game 4, conjure up the image of Endy Chavez and Jason Giambi pinch hitting with the game on the line) and starting pitching advantage.
Yankee
Doodle
by Peter Murphy
July
4, 2006
Well it’s the midway mark of the year, and of
the baseball season, and it’s been an interesting first half.
MLB:
It looks like Jim Leyland is shaping up to be
what Tony LaRussa wishes he was. LaRussa
usually has a good squad, and ends up in the playoffs, but there’s lingering
doubt about his so-called genius. Leyland has got the Tigers playing way above their expected
level, in just half a season, when most people had forgotten who Jim Leyland
was. The Tigers are complicating
the playoff positioning, especially with defending champs the Chisox still
playing at last year’s level. In
the preseason, I refused to pick the White Sox to repeat, because you just
can’t say “repeat” in the same sentence as any Chicago baseball team. But usually, the AL east expects 2 teams, having had the wild
card team in 8 of the 11 wild cards in AL history. There’s still a lot of baseball yet to go, so it’s no
given which of the Soxes, Tigers, or Yankees will miss the playoffs.
And don’t yet cry for the Yankees with all
those injuries, or start saying that the managing has been extra special, or
that any one player is keeping it all together, heroically.
Sure they’ve lost a lot of key starters, but they have so many key guys
to begin with. Since they overpay
for everyone, it’s not fair to just deduct the salaries of the missing and
point out that they are still around $140-150 million, and still the highest
payroll. But if you analyze rosters
throughout the league, there should be no surprise that the Yankees are in the
hunt. Bottom line, ask yourself,
what would you expect from a team that had A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Mussina,
Johnson and Rivera? How many
teams don’t have that many guys that good, covering batters, starters and
closers? Most teams don’t stack
up. If the Yankees can stay in the
hunt until Matsui and Sheffield return, they should make a strong run for the
playoffs. It would be great to see
the Twins make a run into this group. They
are the hottest team, but have a lot of ground to make up.
This would be the 4th time in five post-contraction years that the Twins
make the playoffs.
In the National League, let me remind you of my pre-season prediction for the NL
east:
“Mets (decent enough team, easy competition now that Leo Mazzone is gone, and
the Phillies, Marlins, and Expos imploded.”
Mid-Season awards:
MVP’s
Big Papi, and Albert Pujols. Honorable
mention to Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright in the N.L. (Beltran
has higher on-base and slugging average of the three, and more runs, despite
missing 9 games due to injury.)
Cy Young:
A tie. Glavine (what, you can’t give it to a 40 year old not named
Roger or Unit?) and Bronson Arroyo, with Arroyo’s bat winning the tie-breaker.
In the A.L., another tie, Toronto’s B.J. Ryan and Bosox rookie Jonathan
Papelbon. Why 2 relievers?
If you give up 2 runs in half a season as a closer, you pretty much
can’t top that.
Rookie of the Year:
As a consolation, AL ROY is Francisco Liriano, over Papelbon.
National League ROY goes to
Manager of the Year:
Leyland, and Willie Randolph, (except for that one inning against the
Yankees).
NBA
The NBA playoffs for 2 rounds were exciting
as it gets: Long series, every game close. The next 2 rounds were disappointing, but the finals at least
had 3 tight games. Unfortunately,
bad play and bad officiating seemed to be more determinative of the outcome than
usual.
The playoffs answered the key question that
was gnawing at me: Are the writers
insane to give Steve Nash back-to-back MVP awards?
The answer is yes, since Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James
proved they are the far better players, and can actually carry a team through
the playoffs. Steve Nash, okay, we
get the joke. He is a good point
guard, short and slow. In 2005
maybe he was more deserving, but in 2006, you had many qualified candidates.
The Phoenix Suns lost 8 more games this year than they did last year, but
writers voting for this invented the theory that to do so while playing without
Amare Stoudemaire, somehow was a miracle. They
make it sound like they were playing with 4 players, or that Stoudemaire was the
2nd coming of Michael Jordan.
Maybe Stoudemaire is the MVP, since evidently, he’s so great!
Or maybe the writers are underrating Sean Marion? And let’s not forget the fact that Dallas, the team
that let Nash go, has improved its record 2 years in a row, without Nash.
Does that make Nowitzki the MVP? Or
maybe Nash was holding them back, a cancer, kind of like Steph Marbury, where
teams improve when he leaves. I
know people won’t vote for Kobe because he’s a jerk, but where would the
Lakers be without him? Forget the Cavs without Lebron.
The Heat championship raises several
questions. First off, is D. Wade
that good, or could the Heat have won with, say Kobe Bryant instead of Wade?
Could Kobe have taken a team with Shaq all the way?
Maybe, as long as there was a reputed “genius” coach at the helm.
That’s the next question.
Is Riley a genius? His
coaching record is astounding, in terms of regular season, where 55 wins a year
is almost like a minimum, and he collects division titles like, say,
baseball’s Bobby Cox.
Riley has now gotten the monkey off his back,
having won the championship with the second team, but before that, there was a
lot of comparison with Bill Parcells. Both
had early success, winning championships, and then became these larger than life
gods when they turned around other teams that were at the bottom of the heap.
They were built up by the media, and started writing books about success
in life, and making motivational speeches.
Their multiples turnarounds separated them from the likes of Joe Torre
and Phil Jackson, who have a lot of championships, but who have never taken a
crappy team way beyond expectations. With
Jackson’s championships, he has always had the MVP/Hall of Famer on his team,
in a sport with only five players at a time.
With Torre, he had meager success for almost 20 years as a manager, and
then suddenly the right team and payroll pushed him into the elite.
But for some reason, these 2 coaches had been
getting knocked quite a bit. Despite
the fact that Parcells has quickly turned around 4 teams, getting each to the
playoffs, people are comparing him to Belichick, and saying Parcells never won
without Belichick. (How come if a
John Gruden wins a Super Bowl, they say, “ah, he worked with Holmgren, who
worked with Bill Walsh”, which enhances the reputation of these coaching
ancestors, but with Parcells, when his assistants do well, it’s “A Ha!”). Riley has also turned the Knicks and Heat (first tenure) into
contenders, well beyond what their rosters would indicate, but was hearing the
“but never without Magic” criticisms. As if 20 plus years at the top of the
league was a fluke. Riles can now
kick back and relax, he has nothing left to prove.
The Knicks
Scott Layden must be rolling over in his
grave. Scott Layden is dead?
you say. Not really,
but I was thinking of all the times I buried the former Knick GM.
Now, instead of saying to Scott, “gee, you weren’t so bad”, I will
be less forgiving, and say, “See what you started!” The Knicks are an example of what would have happened to the
Mets (Glavine, Mo Vaughan) if there were a salary cap in baseball.
And it started when they overpaid Ewing at the end of his career out of
loyalty, then the Alan Houston mess, and now Isaiah’s Folly.
The saddest part of this is that the guy who runs the company where I get
phone, cable and internet service from is the same guy who decided that it
isn’t worth waiting until Larry Brown turns this around, that it is time to go
let Isaiah lead the team.
World Cup
In the last four years, I had forgotten how much bull shit there is in soccer,
with the cheap elbows, the whining for calls, but most of all, all that bad
acting. Can you imagine if the NBA
allowed stretchers out on the court, helped pick up someone off the floor who
got hacked going in for a score, or bumped at mid-court? Same guy is
running around like nothing happened a few minutes later.
How come you can’t spell “soccer” without s-c-o-r and e, but you can play 90
minutes, plus the mystery extra time, without an s-c-o-r-e?
Locker
Room Chatter
with Peter Murphy
March
29, 2006
Springtime
for Saddam
No, not that this will be yet another Saddam-and-Sports article, but I had the idea that I could generate tax
write-offs and make a killing if I wrote an article so bad, no one would read it. Springtime for (name a monstrous dictator) seems like a good place to start. So here are my lamest comments on the state of sports at the moment.
NCAA Hoops.
So far (cause you can always get a shitty final weekend), this is the best tourney I can remember. No blowouts, plenty-o-upsets, and
a true Cinderella in the semifinals. There were some gut-wrenching close games, with more blame to the losers than credit to the winners
(Gonzaga-UCLA, and Washington-UConn). Congratulations to Providence College, who refused to hire either of their alumni hoopsters Jimmy Laranaga or Billy Donovan. Yeah, Tim Welch of Iona has much more cachet, if that’s what you were looking for.
Congratulations to George Mason, and ‘kyou to those who wanted a 9th Big East team or a fifth ACC team who was 8-8 in conference. Can you imagine Arizona State going 4-4 in the Pac 10 and demanding a shot at the BCS championship of football? Shut up, the tournament should reward good play, not good pedigree. Every bubble team has a loss that was their Alamo, look in the mirror, smell yourself.
And Duke is fast becoming the Mike Mussina of hoops. You still can’t believe it when they are eliminated, but it happens regularly enough that you shouldn’t be surprised.
And Big Baby’s brick-rebound from the stripe against Duke notwithstanding, why do coaches continue to not contest rebounds of late-game free throws while nursing slim leads. (See Mason vs
UConn). Do you really need 4 guys back to guard one guy? You can’t contest a miss, or pressure the ball up court?
Prediction: Florida loses to UCLA in the final.
Baseball
World Baseball Classic. Nice first try, but never has there been a premier sporting event that had athletes in their worst playing shape of the year. Maybe try in another four years, but do it like Olympic hockey, shut down the season mid-year for 2 weeks and play in peak shape with expanded rosters to allow for MLB stars to all get some R&R. And let’s make the MLB playoffs round robin, so the worst qualifier can maybe win the championship.
Barry Bonds. Let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt, it’s just innuendo. Until you get a report with specific dates, and specific doses of specific drugs that no one has ever heard of, and now he has to be run out of the game. But how?
Back in 2002, Bud Selig was heavily criticized for letting the All-Star game be tied. The top of the final inning in that game saw both managers consulting with Selig in his box seat, and then the game ended tied. And I’m sitting there saying, “what were they discussing?” Can Jeter pitch? Is it okay if Trevor Hoffman pitches up to 6 more innings?
There should have been no discussion, Selig should have anticipated a tie and that he would be blamed, cause, well, he’s hated. Selig should have done all the talking, as in:
“Torre, if you don’t score in the top of the inning, your pitcher is gonna groove as many fastballs as it takes to end this game with one swing.” And to
Brenly:
“Brenly, they can use Sosa’s bat if they have to. But if the Americans score, then your Nationals are going to lay down like lambs 1-2-3.
Capeesh?”
But the Commish didn’t listen to me. Now listen up, Bud.
Maybe let Bonds take down the Bambino, this way he can gloat about having the most lefty homers if he wants, but only he cares about it. Don’t let him top Hank Aaron. Run, don’t walk, to the nearest FBI office with all the secret private eye files you have on him (we know they have them), which will contain details of his cash-only memorabilia earnings, and former Ranger owner, George Bush’s IRS can put him on a fast track to the land of slamming doors. Where you sleep with pillows between your knees to soak up all that blood. Not that there’s anything wrong with it. Don’t miss your second chance to do the wrong thing! Call it the
Capone-Snyder-McCovey-Rose-Strawberry maneuver.
Tragedy: And in the amazing race to the bottom, Doc Gooden has padded his lead over Darryl Strawberry with his recent drug troubles. Strawberry is expected to concede the race soon. The lengths some people will go to avoid being part of the Mets 8-month long celebration of the greatest sporting comeback ever. Oh yeah, Doc will be missing out on all the fun, 1986, this year ends in a 6. 1986, back when the Mets ruled New York. Take that Yankees! Bill Buckner, oh yeah. Take that Red Sox nation. What? I’m stuck in a time warp? Nineteen forty…. Nineteen forty. Betty
Grable, nice gams.
Pre-season predictions:
Playoff qualifiers:
National: Mets (decent enough team, easy competition now that Leo Mazzone is gone, and the
Phillies, Marlins, and Expos imploded. Brewers and Reds will nab 2 slots for the central, because the Astros can’ t lose 2
Hall of Famers and still remain competitive, and this is the year Tony LaRussa finally becomes a complete manager, but learning to underachieve in the REGULAR season. Out west, lets go with the Dodgers, in a weak division.
American: Pen in the Yankees, for the same reason, too much depth to not be at a minimum, the best 2nd place team, but this year I expect the Red Sox to run out of steam and fall far off the pace. Yanks win the division, Twins in the central, and Angels out west, with the White Sox and Indians battling for the wild card. With the Sox prevailing.
Cy Youngs: Heuston Street. He continues his meteoric rise, surpassing an aging Mariano as thee closer, and gets a city, or a street named after him in baseball heaven. Dontrelle Willis. Enough said (I couldn’t think of anything write now.) Remember: Bialystock and Bloom, Bialystock and Bloom.
MVP: In the American league, Alex Rodriguez, in a back-to-back performance. His main competitors in the talent field will either not be in contention
(Tejada, Ortiz) or will decline in production (Sheffield, Guererro), and in his 3rd year, he will have no nervous issues (in the regular season). With guys on base ahead of him, and protection behind,
fuggedaboutit. And in a surprise and refreshing twist, the national MVP will go to someone only those paying close attention this March has ever heard of, Kevin
Finnerty, of Arizona.
NFL
Were we really on the brink of labor meltdown? Now focusing on the draft, it’s amazing how the stock of the top players keeps shifting. Brees to New Orleans shook things up, and maybe Leinart or Young slips a bit. Does anyone still think that Reggie Bush is still gonna get 400 all-purpose yards a game in the pros? And what’s with University of Texas “educated” draftee Vince Young? He couldn’t spell eneffel if you gave him the N and the F, and told him to spell it as if it was all one word.
Terrell Owens will behave for one year, because Bill Parcells is not Andy Reid, and Bill Parcells is also not Donovan McNabb.
T.O. gambled, had his bluff called, and got screwed last year, and he knows to get his craved-for sunshine, he has to be on the field. The field with the star at the 50, where he will celebrate his first key TD, and where the fans will eat it up.
Winter Olympics
See my comments four months from now about World Cup Soccer.
Click here to send feedback
[ Back to top]
Locker
Room Chatter
with Peter Murphy
January
16, 2006
Goobers
& Raisinettes
Back
in 1997, following an heartbreaking home playoff loss by the Giants (no, not the
Trey Junkin game, this was the on-side kick/pass interference game), the Giants
blew a 10 point lead in the last few minutes vs. the hapless Denny Green-coached
Vikings. A highly agitated NY
sports radio host, Mike Francesa, was at the game, and in an unprecedented move,
insisted to his radio stations that he immediately host an unscheduled post-game
call-in show on his day off. This
was so he, and the rest of the Giants’ faithful, could vent their frustrations
in public without delay.
Likewise,
this weekend’s NFL action saw so many strange and interesting things, it has
driven me straight to the typewriter, ‘cause there’s just so much to say.
Seahawks-Skins,
zzzzzzzzz.
Panthers-Bears,
wow that Steve Smith!! He has
become what Terrell Owens could have been. And
John Fox is now the all-time leading coach in playoff winning percentage, Bill
Belichick, thanks for playing; we have some wonderful parting gifts.
Fox holds the lead, until his next loss anyway.
The loss of De-Sean Foster for the rest of the playoffs will probably
spell their doom in the NFC championship game, but I wouldn’t be surprised
either if the Panthers end up in the Bowl.
And Broncos-Pats? Well,
it’s rare to see a 27-13 game be characterized as “could have gone either
way”, but the Pats threw away about 13 easy points, and handed at least 10
easy points to Los Broncos. They
had a good run, winning 7 straight in the playoffs (discontinued appearances in
the playoffs of course ended their previous 3 game streak), but before we start
scratching our head about how Golden Boys Tom Brady and Troy Brown can come up
small in a big game, as Pats fans well-know, Troy Brown fumbled twice in the
snow vs. Raiders in 2001 (both recovered by one of the game’s true heroes,
Larry Izzo), and Brady, famously fumbled to “end” the game in what was later
overturned and ruled an incomplete pass (the “tuck”). If you look back at the Pats run, unlike past repeat winners,
they won a lot of close playoff games, with 5 of the 10 under Belichick coming
by exactly 3 points (2 in Overtime), so the ball was bound to bounce against
them sooner or later. And let’s
not cry over the referee calls either. Didn’t
the NFL have to clarify and emphasize wide-receiver harassment after the 2003
AFC championship game because there were so many uncalled muggings by the
Patriots?
But
lets face it, the only thing to really talk about after this weekend was
Steelers-Colts.
Steelers-Colts:
Right
or wrong (and it’s wrong), the game will ultimately be all about Peyton
Manning. If you have followed
Peyton long enough, you know that he has long been known derisively as
“Goober”. As in “Ole Goober
just can’t win the big game”. Of
course, they were talking about beating the Florida Gators at the time, but pro
fans, you can follow along.
Tennessee
was a powerhouse in Ole Goob’s days there, but they won the Fiesta Bowl and a
national championship with a QB called Tee Martin, who followed Manning.
He failed in big game after big game.
And nowadays, when a player in uniform from, say Texas, pretends to be
conducting the band playing the school fights song after the game, people think
it’s cute. But Peyton used to do
this regularly, which annoyed many an SEC foe.
Manning also lost in a close Heisman trophy race, and not necessarily
because his play was at fault. A
lot of the voters, my dishonest media brethren, voted for Charles Woodson not on
talent, but because they didn’t care for Goober’s attitude. He then whined
after finishing second, as if the world owed him a Heisman. Yep,
Old Goob came into the league as someone who had a lot to prove.
It’s funny now to think that Ryan Leaf was almost considered a better
prospect in the 1998 NFL draft.
After
two 3-13 seasons, the Colts have been a top team in all but one year since 1999.
Until 2003, they said he could never win in the playoffs, although he
wasn’t usually the reason they lost. The
Colts’ defense was always suspect, and lead to the firing of the ultimate
can’t-win-in-the-playoffs coach, Jim Mora, now known as Jim Mora, Sr. (zero
and 6 lifetime postseason record). This
year was supposed to be different, and Tony Dungy was credited with developing a
solid all-around squad (including special teams). But was supposed to be the Colts’ year, and they didn’t
even win one playoff game. They
fell a staggering 6 wins short of a 19-0 season.
Again, this loss will hang on Manning, who is a less-likeable Dan Marino
(8-10 in the playoffs) for the 21st century.
As
I have warned many times (usually by saying “Mark my words . . . . ”),
Goober is a very me-first type of player. He
cares too much about his performance and stats over team goals, although now
I’m sure he’ll take a super bowl championship over any future in-season
accolades. Despite the team kicking ass on the way to 13-0, and
challenging Shula’s 1972 Dolphins , he was having more fun and was more
animated in 2004 when he was challenging a different Dolphin, the 1984 Dan
Marino. Does he realize what
Marino’s legacy is? If you saw
the post-game press conference Sunday, it’s clear that he is either so selfish
or such a fool (or both) that he complained about “problems in protection”,
essentially throwing his offensive line under the bus.
Knowing he has P.R. issues, why couldn’t he just go through the
motions, saying all the right things after a loss.
Why be Matt Leinart when you can be Tom Brady?
To be fair, Manning is still a great player.
Even adjusting for indoor stadium, and high-flying offensive weapons, his
49 TD season is still good. Shave
off 40%, and you’re still at over 30 TDs.
The Colts would be worse without him, and just about any other team would
be better with him as their QB. It’s
not like he sucks. And when a
team faces him in the playoffs, they don’t try to take down his receivers with
hard hits, or stuff the line to neutralize Edgerrin James.
The whole scheme is about disrupting Manning.
Other than maybe someone like Michael Vick, or Vince Young, perhaps, the
goal isn’t usually to just get the QB, because you don’t always know what
they’re going to do. Manning’s
play is predictable. That’s
basically a salute by the league to his talent.
Even during Joe Montana’s hey day, the game wasn’t designed to stop
the QB, it was to contain the offense as a whole.
Recently, a New York Times columnist complained that it was always
Belichick vs. Manning, instead of vs Dungy. Well,
truth be told, it is the other coach vs. Manning.
the Patriots in their last 2 super bowl years basically had to shut down
Manning. They had weeks to get
ready, and did an excellent job neutralizing ole Goob.
I’d like to see Tom Brady face a Belichick defense in a big game.
And
in yesterday’s loss, besides Vanderjagt, the defense didn’t execute very
well in some key spots in the first half. Weren’t
they supposed to be the difference this year?
When Peyton waived off the punter on the 4th and 2, and
converted, leading to a TD a minute later, let’s give him his due.
Had they won the game, that would have been a gutsy move for the ages.
And let’s not forget the head coach, who was ready to punt down 21-3
with 16 minutes to go. In the
aftermath of the game, the Giants are now considering trading Eli Manning and a
first round draft pick for Philip Rivers, who has less miles on him.
And in the aftermath of the last two weekends, Archie Manning is
considering having a vasectomy, for the good of the league.
Other
points to the game:
The
Tuck, part 2: Maybe the tuck is in the rule
book, but like the tuck, yesterday’s ruling that Polamalu “dropped” the
pass, because several seconds after he caught it, and about nine yards away from
where he caught it, his knee was still touching the ground when he
“fumbled”. This at first seemed
like the game was fixed, as most NFL playoff games are. But we were only suspicious when we had already seen a huge
non-call on a pass-interference and the bizarre non-call on the 4th
and 1 when everyone on the Colts, as well as in the Stanford band, was
off-sides. It seemed the refs were
afraid to put the final nail in the Colts’ coffin.
Bill
Cowher. You finally found someone
you could out-coach. Too bad you never faced Marty Schottenheimer in one of your 5
other AFC championship games. But
if you look back at Cowher’s title game failures, he didn’t always have the
much better team (home game and higher seed notwithstanding). In the post-season, as a high seed they have lost to the
Bills Juggernaut, the Pats twice, Elway’s Broncos during their repeat years,
and the Chargers on the last play of the game.
O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Roethlisberger last year?
None of these guys were the better quarterback.
You may have doubts about Cowher’s big-game coaching ability, but
wouldn’t you also have to assume that over his 14 years as head coach, he has
probably over-achieved during the regular seasons.
This is not necessarily the case with the Dungys and the Schottenheimers
of the world, who generally have solid regular season teams and should be
winning in the playoffs.
Roethlisberger:
Shut up about no one giving you a chance. A year ago, you were 15-1, yet were home underdogs in the AFC
championship game. And you went out
and sucked, as we knew would happen. So
don’t bring that crap up.
Tony
Dungy: Like Vandejagt, Dungy
benefits from having Peyton take most of the hits.
Nevertheless, being out-coached, GROSSLY out-coached by Bill Cowher?
That’s a big step down from being out-coached by Bill Bellichick, Romeo
Crennel and Charlie Weis. Now we know Peyton basically calls his own plays, but who is
responsible for the failure to get closer than a 46 yard FG, after?
You had the entire middle of the field, inside 10 yards to get a first
down, and Bettis’ fumble spared all your timeouts.
You can overrule a quarterback? What
now? What is going to become of the
Colts next year, now that the whole world knows how to beat you? This could be it for this version of the Colts, not many
teams make the playoffs perennially, and they’ve made it four in a row, and 6
of the last 7 years. Is their
window closing? Ask the
Eagles how they feel, after 5 straight playoff seasons, while never losing in
the first round, but winning no championships.
Nothing lasts forever. Dungy,
you’re time is running out too!
Player
of the game? Troy Polamolamphetamine, who ran all the way back to Pittsburgh
after the game. He never slows
down, but for the 2nd week in a row, his interception is followed by
a blunder. Last week, the pitch on
the return, and yesterday, causing his own fumble.
Still, I love his energy and hustle, if not his girly-hairdo.
Vanderjagt:
The “idiot kicker” has done this before. Eerily, he blew a game-winner, also about 25 feet wide right,
well before Manning was known for not winning big NFL games.
Okay, so maybe it wasn’t all Manning’s fault even back in 2000 vs.
Miami. He also blew a tying FG in
the 2004 Thursday night opener in Foxboro, the loss that made the Colts miss out
on the bye and the home game before going down in flames to the Patriots.
However, immediately prior to all 3 Vanderjerk failures, the Colts made
huge set up mistakes. In the 2000
playoffs, the Colts turned down a penalty to force 4th and 1 and the
kick, instead of 3rd and 7, because they felt they were within his FG
range. Perhaps, they could have
gotten a first down, and kicked from closer.
And in the regular season loss in Foxboro, don’t forget that Manning
was sacked by Willie McGinest on a 3rd and goal trying for the win.
The loss of about 10 yards evidently pushed the Colts out of his range,
and he missed by inches. Maybe next time
they face a 3rd and 2, they should let the kicker call the play.
Key
and untalked about play of the game: On
Harper’s 44 yard fumble return with a minute left, replay shows that unless he
pulls a Champ Bailey, if Harper makes the determination that he will out run
Roethlisberger on the right sideline, instead of thinking he has to juke him
back to the inside, then he probably scores, or at least gets another 40 yards.
This will haunt that man until they win a Super Bowl, if ever.
Looking ahead? It’s wide open, any combination of wins for these next three games is believable. There’s a 3/4ths chance that the winner will be either first time franchise or first for a coach. My money is on a rematch of 8 years ago, Shanahan vs. Holmgren, with Denver taking the title, leaving the other 3 streaks of futility in tact.
Locker
Room Chatter
with Peter Murphy
January
6, 2006
Back
to Work
So
the holidays are over, but do they ever really end, or do they just string
together without missing a beat? No
sooner did we all toss out the Christmas Trees, then did stores start selling
Martin Luther King Day candy. It
never lets up.
But now that most of the world is back to work,
the real work of the NFL season begins. College football is behind us (but for the much-awaited
college all-star games), and baseball’s hot stove is overheating.
College Football Wrapup
The Rose Bowl:
I have been criticized for not saying the phrase “instant
classic” enough. Well this was
just that. The Rose Bowl started
with a lot of obvious tension among the players, which seemed to make both teams
mistake-prone. This made for a
better first half, with no blowout as was seen in last year’s final.
The 2nd half was an offensive show of force, with both teams
running up and down the field.
Vince Young, a game for the ages, but what’s up with that throwing motion?
And did he hit one covered receiver the whole game?
Not only could USC not tackle well, they played a type of zone coverage
that left guys wide open short of 15 yards down field.
It made it easy to pick them apart.
And how come everyone on the Texas D knew Lendale White was going to run
it on 4th and 1 with 2 minutes left (personally, I would have given
the ball to Heisman winner, Reggie Bush, but that would have required throwing
into cent-uple coverage, as Bush was surrounded by about 100 other bench-bound
Trojans on the play), yet USC couldn’t figure the obvious Vince Young-gonna-run-it-on-every-key-play
strategy the Longhorns used in the last six minutes?
I have to admit, I was always surprised with
Pete Carroll’s dominance in college, especially since he runs the defense, and
it was their offense that carried them through the 34-win streak. Yet, I was also hesitating in criticizing him.
But last night was a frightening reminder of Cliff Robertson’s “Charly”,
based on the book “Flowers from Algernon”.
Is Pete Carroll, the erstwhile genius, reverting back to the simpleton he
so often appeared to be? Leinart’s whine about USC being the better team may actually
be true, but coaching let them down. Gambling
on 4th down (1 for 3), blowing a much-needed timeout on an extra
point conversion, and not “spying” Vince Young in the 4th quarter
were key coaching blunders by the Trojan staff.
Ironically, the top 3 Heisman vote getters this year raised some concerns about
their NFL status, in my eyes. Since November, people have been drooling over their losing
teams reminiscent of when Patrick Ewing was coming out of college.
Bush is flashy, but look around the league at all the top running backs
that no one heard of in college. NFL
running is often a function of line blocking, and a complimentary good passing
game, which keeps safeties deep. Bush
had a so-so game. Leinart doesn’t
seem like the future Carson Palmer just yet, and showed a little too much
Pennington-like air under some of his passes.
And Vince Young didn’t complete or attempt anything deep or in
coverage, and will no-doubt be in for a surprise if he thinks NFL defenses will
allow him to run so free. And his
arm is suspect. Lendale White’s stock may have risen, however.
In other Bowl games:
Like
pre-teen Spin-the-Bottle (TM), football is a game of inches.
In the Fiesta Bowl, the last game ever in Tostitos Stadium, Notre Dame,
on 2 key plays, came up just a mere120 inches short.
That’s how close their safeties came to catching two back-breaking
bombs thrown by Ohio State’s QB. Notre
Dame came up short again, and seemed overmatched upfront vs. the OSU defense,
and clearly needs more speed on defense. Still, it was good to see ND back in the BCS bowl, if only to
see ND get to share $14 million appearance fee with no one, and to hear Brent
Musburger talk for four hours about Brady Quinn’s sister.
While there didn’t seem to be a sense that
anything was at stake, there were some exciting bowl games.
In another “Instant Classic” Alabama is back on the map, and got a
hard-fought win against a feisty Texas Tech team. Their buzzer-beating FG limped over the bar.
It was not the prettiest thing in the world, but neither is Laura Quinn.
But a win is a win.
It didn’t take an avalanche of reader mail for me to admit I was wrong that
Joe Paterno should be fired (after five losing seasons).
With their revamped “modern” offense, evidently, you can teach an old
dog new tricks . . . If you beat him over the head for five years, and threaten
to tarnish his legacy. Bobby
Bowden, however, should hang ’em up. The
game has passed HIM by.
To renew my annual membership in the “we need a
playoff” club, wouldn’t it be great to see teams like Penn State and Ohio
State move on to the next round? With
their tough defenses, they can stay on the field with anyone.
NFL
There were very few great match-ups the final
weeks of the regular season, as most teams that had something at stake were
playing teams that had given up. But
that’s all behind us now. The
season had a few interesting twists and turns, if you can call T.O. interesting.
Give him credit though, at least there were no “Towel” moments this
year.
4th Annual Regular Season Awards:
Best player:
Larry Johnson. With over
1,400 yards in the final 8 games and 21 total TDs, the Chiefs must be drooling
(at the thought of being able to trade Priest Holmes).
Best Coach:
Lovie Smith. He has da Bears playing his brand of defense, which has
carried them all the way to a likely second-round exit.
Luckiest: Patriots. Yes,
they were snake bitten with numerous injuries, but this occurred in a down year
for what has been the NFL’s best division.
The Jets fell apart, the Bills never got going, and Miami took time to
gel. The AFC East had captured 14 of the AFC’s last 26 wild card berths over
the last 10 years, and had accounted for 4 of the last 9 AFC Super Bowl
entrants. They also draw the
weakest team in the playoffs for the first round (see predictions).
Least Lucky:
Dallas. They lost a couple games in incredible fashion, and were left
short of the playoffs by a late-season run by the Skins. Perhaps the best team
to not make the playoffs.
Good Riddance: Take the blinders off,
ESPN. Favre is toast, and played
like . . . like other quarterbacks
who lost their All-Pro running backs and have lousy receivers. Say, Brooks Bollinger. And
during all those Favre montages, who was that young guy in the Favre jersey
making all those great plays? Don’t you have any from this century?
Other QBs who will or should hang them up:
Flutie, Testaverde, Bledsoe, Warner, and Blanda.
Good riddance to Herman Edwards. I’ll
miss his responses in press conferences, much as I miss Jim Fassel’s.
AFC:
I would look for the Steelers to ramp up the
offense, gaining a road win vs. the Bengals, before falling to the Super Bowl
bound Colts. The Patriots will
easily win their wild card matchup with the Jags, prompting endless discussion
of Brady’s 10-0 playoff streak. This
is of course bogus, for four reasons: First,
the team, in a must win or face elimination game in late December 2002, lost to
the eventual AFC east champ Jets, and didn’t make the playoffs.
The streak is not continuous, so is inherently bogus.
Second, on an adjusted basis, his record is really 6-1 (adjusted for
games featuring late fumbles on sacks that are overturned allowing you to tie
the score and win in overtime). Third,
Drew Bledsoe threw over 100 yards in relief, and threw the Pats only TD pass in
that 24-17 win, so let’s say Brady is 5-1, or maybe 5 ½ and 1, adjusted. Fourth: Teams
win games, not Quarterbacks. Aren’t
the Patriots the epitome of this truth?
(Okay, to be fair and consistent, Derek Jeter’s
“adjusted” ALCS career batting average is only .256 instead of .262, since
that kid reached over the fence to pull his flyout into the stands, and his
career combined ALCS and World Series batting average is only .276 instead of
.279, vs a career regular season batting average of .314 for “Mr. Clutch”. .
. . only .276!!. (Armando
Beniteziz post-season E.R.A. dips to 3.26 from 3.56)
I think we were talking about the AFC playoffs?
Oh yeah, the magic soon ends for the Patriots, losing a tough game to a
better-rested Denver at Mile High.
NFC:
I expect the Giants to eke out a win at
home in the first round, and then to move on to Chicago and end the Bears
fantasy. This second game requires
a road win for the surging Skins over the Simms-led Bucs, who aren’t really a
good team. The game will, however,
be an “Instant Classic”. The
Skins will then be no match for a well-rested Seahawks.
The extra week off and the home field advantage will spell doom for the
Giants, which will raise new complaints about all those missed FGs from Jay
Feely in the regular season game, which denied the Giants themselves the coveted
bye and the 2nd seed. But
quickly, those complaints will dissipate, with Giants fans (those over age 9
anyway) recalling the Trey Junkin playoff mishap from three years ago as much
worse. (Note:
By getting my annual Trey Junkin reference out of the way so early in
2006, I have the option of using it again later in 2006, without seeming
repetitive of fixated on the Trey Junkin mishap).
Super Bowl:
I will go with the Colts here, just because of the overall AFC
dominance of the past decade. The
Colts do have two strong sides, and will benefit from the climate control of
Ford Field. Peyton Manning
detractors, and he knows who he is, will be torn by the possibility of rooting
against Tony Dungy’s team, while the rest of the country, sans Seattleians,
will be pulling for Dungy amidst his family tragedy.
Hot
Stove (baseball)
While I had already predicted the end of
the Red Sox 3-year playoff run, I think the Johnny Damon deal sealed it.
Yanks stole away 3rd best hitter, and table setter for the
Sox. But the real story is the
pitching. Sox haven’t won the
division since 1995, so even at their best, they were a wild card team. I think
that they played over their heads in 2005, and though they remain talented,
probably don’t have the grit or the starting pitching they had in 2004 to make
it. I am assuming the new
Schilling, not the (good) Old Schilling will show up in 2006.
The Yanks, meanwhile, still have a solid lineup, and Damon improves it.
Getting Damon allows Yanks to slot down Jeter and A-Rod to their more
natural slots. If Giambi and
Sheffield have solid years, then the lineup will make up for the deficiencies in
the starting lineup, and Yanks should coast to a division win.
The Mets meanwhile, are winning the NL East
battle of attrition. It’s likely
that in 2005, Braves and Nationals played above their roster talent, and
haven’t improved significantly. Phillies
and Marlins have gotten weaker over the off-season, while the Mets have added
depth. Losing Piazza won’t harm
them, but another year of experience will help Reyes and Wright, so the Mets
should win their division, even without Seo in the rotation, and with or without
Manny Ramirez, who as of press time, is staying put in Boston.
But that’s just Manny being Manny.
(Do you think in the Ramirez home, when their three kids are misbehaving,
and Mrs. Ramirez starts yelling that these kids are driving me crazy, that Manny
tells her to calm down, that it’s just Manuelito, Manny Junior, and little
Manny being Manny?)
Click here to send feedback
[ Back to top]
The
Most Wonderful Time of the Year, part 2
October
5, 2005
Is
there a better time of year than early autumn weekends when you don’t have to
schlep to the beach, the weather is still great but not oppressively hot, and
most importantly, the NFL regular season and baseball post-season are heating
up.
I will focus here on baseball.
Baseball
Regular Season Awards:
Again,
the BWAA is gonna yank my credentials for disclosing my votes ahead of time.
I’m pretty much sticking with my mid-season picks, with slight changes.
To tip my hand regarding MVP, I’ll mention upfront that I disagree with
the notion that “value” is heavily slanted to players on winning teams.
Now, while in many cases, you could support the argument that without a
certain top player, a certain team would not have made the playoffs.
But in most cases, let’s take the Yankees and Red Sox for example; by
making the playoffs by such a slim margin (2 games over the Indians), each team
probably has several players that made the difference.
In the Yankees case, you could cite Rivera, Sheff, A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui,
Randy Johnson, and let’s not forget Jeter.
That’s 7 guys.
Using the playoff out is what cost Lou Gehrig and Ted Williams (twice)
MVPs despite winning triple crowns.
It cost the hated Albert Belle the title in favor of Mo Vaughan in 1995.
At the time, it was said that Vaughan was a leader in the clubhouse, and
was a better fielder than Belle.
You can stop laughing (or crying) now, Mets fans.
I heard some radio pundits this weekend say that Saturday’s victory
clinches the MVP for A-Rod, because they won their division.
The next day, in what started out as a must-win, the Red Sox clinched a
spot, and matched the Yankees 95-win total (depriving the Yanks of the 2nd
seed).
Does that mean that suddenly Manny Ramirez should get the MVP over A-Rod,
who couldn’t prevent a 10-1 loss (as if he was going to pull out another
10-RBI game)?
In 1998, McGwire won the epic chase for Maris, but Sosa was a near
unanimous MVP. Why?
Because the Cubs won a whopping 90 games, 7 more than the Cardinals.
Did that mean that if you had traded those players, the Cardinals would
have made the playoffs?
Possible, but doubtful.
And is 90 a valuable win total?
What about 82?
Could the best 2005-Padre be considered for MVP?
They made the playoffs.
To me, MVP is for the year’s best player, and can include pitchers.
NL
MVP:
Sticking with Derek Lee.
He led the majors in average, 4th in HR’s, and bad teammates
held him back in RBI.
Can steal a base too.
Andruw Jones, whose first name is spelled wrong according to my spell
check, was too Kingman like at the plate, although he is also a great fielder.
Believe it or not, this 50-homer guy scored ONLY 95 runs (and batted a
paltry .262).
Pujols gets my 2nd place vote.
AL
MVP:
I’m actually switching to A-Rod.
He had the best totals in the crown categories; plays good defense, and
can steal a base.
He’s won it before (an exception, while on the 4th place
Rangers). My
mid-season pick, Ortiz, gets my 2nd place vote.
Ortiz is a clutch player (though not on base or with a glove), and much
has been made of his late-inning prowess and his average with men on base.
In baseball history, guess what player has the highest single-season
batting average with men on base?